Political force or fad? Clout of young voters in U.S. hard to gauge

NEW YORK — They have walked out, marched and demanded action across America to stop gun violence. But it’s far from certain that the young people behind the March for Our Lives movement will be a political force at the ballot box this fall.

Republicans are skeptical. Democrats are hopeful. And outside groups that favour gun control aren’t taking any chances.

Organizations aligned with Democrats on gun control are spending tens of millions of dollars to ensure that young voters’ passion and enthusiasm doesn’t fade before the November midterm elections, when the Republican Party’s control of Congress will be put to the test.

“Other people look at those young people and think organizing them makes no sense because they don’t vote,” said Tom Steyer, the billionaire hedgefund magnate-turned-liberal activist who has committed at least $31 million US this year to what is believed to be the largest youth vote organizing effort in American history. “We really believe in this generation.”

Past voting patterns show how much work Steyer and others have ahead of them. Just 15 per cent of eligible voters between the ages of 18 and 20 cast ballots in the last midterm election.

Still, the mobilization of young people following last month’s shooting at a Parkland, Florida, high school has raised the prospect of a shift that could reshape the American political landscape this fall — and perhaps for much longer.

Student leaders from Parkland have succeeded in keeping the gun debate from quickly fading, as is often the case after mass shootings, though that hasn’t resulted in any significant congressional action. Hundreds of thousands of people, many of them in high school, participated in protest marches in the U.S. and around the world on Saturday.

New waves of protests are already being planned for next month.

Their efforts are being aided by groups that favour stricter gun laws. Everytown for Gun Safety, an organization backed by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, expects to spend more money shaping the 2018 midterms than any other election — and much of it on youth engagement, said chief operating officer Matt McTighe.

The organization spent more than $1 million US to help student organizers participate in the weekend’ marches. They’re now focused on helping high school and college students across the United States organize their own “Students Demand Action” groups, a spinoff of the organization’s “Mom’s Demand Action” against gun violence chapters. Everytown also helped young people establish the nonprofit group that co-ordinated the weekend marches, while in some cases paying for nuts-and-bolts items such as sound systems and stages.