More to ‘courtesy’ than meets the eye

Elizabeth May, who heads the federal Greens, has said her party won’t contest the upcoming byelection in Burnaby South. May’s stated reason is that Jagmeet Singh, the new leader of the federal NDP, should be granted a seat in Parliament. He’s currently on the outside looking in.

A noble sentiment, no doubt. But is that really what’s going on?

May explained her decision as “leader’s courtesy,” which some media reports have called a longstanding parliamentary tradition.

And, indeed, when she ran for the first time in 2008, then-Liberal leader Stéphane Dion accorded her this “courtesy” (even so, she lost). But as ever with parliamentary shenanigans, there’s more here than meets the eye.

First, this so-called longstanding tradition is a fiction. May aside, I count six leaders who took over a major party in the past 50 years before gaining a seat in Parliament.

All were opposed in their first attempt at election. Brian Mulroney, Preston Manning, John Turner (in his return to politics as Liberal leader in 1984), Stockwell Day, Alexa McDonough and Stephen Harper (as leader of the Alliance party in 2002), all faced opposition by one or more of the major parties.

In addition, the Conservatives and Liberals have already indicated they will run against Singh in Burnaby. Leader’s courtesy? Longstanding tradition?

In reality, this looks suspiciously like electoral strategy. By trying to usher May into Parliament, Dion likely hoped to split the left-wing vote and hobble the NDP.

It’s not difficult to perceive a similar degree of calculation in May’s decision. To understand why, you have to consider which of the parties represents the greatest threat to siphon off Green votes at the next election.

Clearly, it’s not the Conservatives, who occupy the opposite end of the political spectrum. On top of that, the new Tory leader, Andrew Scheer, has about as much bounce as a flat tire.

The Liberals equally pose no immediate threat. During the last federal election, the Grits promised electoral reform. Automatically, that would have boosted the number of Green MPs.

But Justin Trudeau reneged on his promise, to the fury of Green voters everywhere. In addition, there is no love lost over Trudeau’s backing of the Kinder Morgan pipeline.

The real threat comes from the NDP, which runs on an almost identical platform, at least so far as the major issues are concerned. So why is May trying to help Singh get elected?

The suspicion is, because he’s weak. He’s a lousy public speaker, he has failed as a fundraiser and he lurches from one unforced blunder to another. A safe pair of hands he is not.

It’s rumoured that some NDP insiders are secretly hoping he loses in Burnaby, so they can find someone more inspiring.

In other words, if Singh tanks this byelection, it might be the end of him. And that could very well be the source of May’s “courtesy.”

Better, she might think, to face Singh at the next general election, than a more capable opponent.

There’s a further consideration. As noted, proportional representation is a goner, federally speaking. That greatly reduces the likelihood of smaller parties gaining more than a handful of seats.

With the collapse of NDP support in Quebec following Jack Layton’s death (though there are other reasons, as well) the next election is likely to see the NDP and Greens scrambling for a handful of ridings — possibly as few as 20.

In that dog-eat-dog environment, May might prefer to fight an NDP burdened with Singh, than someone more potent.

Viewed from this angle, we’re not seeing a demonstration of “leader’s courtesy.” We’re witnessing a calculated effort to prop up a feeble opponent just long enough to eat him alive at the next general election.