Which Modern Family character will be killed off?

Who will die on Modern Family next season?

That’s the question fans are asking following the revelation from co-creator Christopher Lloyd that a “significant character on the series” will die and the death “will be a moving event.”

“We’re handling some bigger life events in this season,” he said in an interview with Entertainment Weekly on Thursday.

So we grabbed our sleuthing gear to put together a list of characters who might get killed off.

Jay Pritchett: The patriarch of the family dying seems to be the most likely, due to his age and previous episodes that joked about him not being around forever. In the most recent season, Jay (Ed O’Neill) spoke to his son, Joe, about death. Jay is the core of all the relationships featured, and his death would have repercussions for the entire show.

Claire Dunphy: While it would be a surprise for Claire (Julie Bowen) to die, there was a hint dropped in a Season 4 episode about her health when she was diagnosed with the heart condition Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. The show could return to that diagnosis and have Claire have a heart attack due to stress.

Phil Dunphy: An equally shocking but not unlikely death would be Claire’s husband, Phil, (Ty Burrell). In a Season 9 episode, he was rushed to hospital for emergency gall-bladder surgery, which would be recent enough in the timeline for him to have complications.

Mitchell Pritchett: Mitchell’s (Jesse Tyler Ferguson) potential death seems less probable, in part due to the show’s more progressive themes, which makes it hard to believe showrunners would fall into the “bury your gays” trope of killing a gay character.

Alex Dunphy: Having one of the children die on the show would certainly qualify as a “moving event” for the whole family. Alex (Ariel Winter) would probably be the least-expected character to die, which would make it all the more sad.