Price of beer will double, scientists predict
Heat waves and droughts expected to cause big fall in barley production
WASHINGTON, D.C. — You can add beer to chocolate, coffee and wine as some of the pleasures that global warming will make scarcer and costlier, scientists say.
Increasing bouts of extreme heat and drought will hit the production of barley, a key ingredient of beer, in the future. Losses of barley yield could be as much as 17 per cent, an international group of researchers estimated.
That means beer prices on average would double, even adjusting for inflation, according to a study in the journal Nature Plants. In countries such as Ireland, where the cost of a brew is already high, prices could triple.
The findings come a week after a United Nations report described the consequences of dangerous levels of climate change, including worsening food and water shortages, heat waves, a rising sea level and disease.
Study co-author Steve Davis, of the University of California, Irvine, said the beer research was partly done to drive home the notthat-palatable message that climate change is messing with all sorts of aspects of our daily lives.
Several scientists who weren’t part of the study said it was sound and, perhaps, a more effective way of communicating the dangers of global warming.
“One of the greatest challenges as a scientist doing research on climate change and food is to illustrate it in a way that people can understand,” U.S. Department of Agriculture scientist Lewis Ziska wrote in an email.
Few people would complain if global warming ruined brussels sprouts, he added.
Scientists have long known that barley “is one of the most heatsensitive crops globally,” but this study connects that to something that people care about — the price of beer — so it’s valuable, said David Lobell, a Stanford University agriculture ecologist.
Davis, an IPA fan, is one of those people who care.
“This is a paper born of love and fear,” he said.
Worldwide barley is used for all sorts of purposes, mostly feeding livestock. Less than 20 per cent of the world’s barley is made into beer. But in the United States, Brazil and China, at least twothirds of the barley goes into six-packs, drafts, kegs, cans and bottles.
Davis and colleagues looked only at the combination of heat waves and drought, not the general warming that should also affect where barley is grown.
If emissions of heat-trapping gases from the burning of coal, oil and gas continue at the current rising pace, the likelihood of weather conditions hurting barley production will increase from about once a decade before 2050 to once every other year by the end of the century, the study predicted.