TAKE REFUGE

AN UNEXPECTED SIDE EFFECT OF CLIMATE-RELATED MIGRATION

IN A CLIMATE-RAVAGED future, Toronto’s northern latitude, weather-moderating lakes and abundance of fresh water could make it a haven for climate refugees. The downside to becoming a (relatively) soft place to land is that the already dire state of our housing, infrastructure and transit will likely crater as demand skyrockets.

“The biggest risk is being unprepared for growth,” says Jason Thistlethwaite, a professor at the University of Waterloo who researches the economic effects of climate change. Doubling down on our current mode of development means more paving— and more flooding. The rivers that run through Toronto are fed by headwaters outside city limits, and irresponsible development in the GTA would send more water our way.

As f loods become more common, certain neighbourhoods could be deemed unlivable, prompting government buyouts (as seen recently in Gatineau, Quebec). In such cases, says Thistlethwaite, struggling households will often take the buyout while their wealthier neighbours may choose to remain and fortify their homes. Over time, neighbourhoods stratify, a phenomenon known as climate gentrification.

Meanwhile, floods could make insurance more expensive for everyone else. Repeated basement flooding can already make a home uninsurable, and companies can raise premiums based on floods in the general area. “Insurance could end up being a luxury item for the rich,” says Thistlethwaite, which would make it harder to get a mortgage or repair damaged properties. In the long run, the wealthy get floodwalls and everyone else gets caught in the deluge downstream.

Toronto could turn into a haven for climate refugees