Tory versus Chow: key is winning the ad war
Love them or hate them, anyone who watches television or listens to radio in Toronto won’t be able to escape the political commercial and ensuing ad war about to be waged by John Tory and Olivia Chow.
With their political futures on the line, Tory and Chow are unleashing a blitz of campaign ads that could be the most expensive ever in a Toronto mayoral election.
Over the remaining six weeks of the race, Tory and Chow will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on commercials aimed at convincing voters to choose them as the city’s next mayor.
For both candidates, winning the ad war is critical.
That’s because the ad campaign marks the final major stage of this marathon race and presents the last best chance to boost their name recognition and inform voters on where they stand on issues.
Whichever candidate loses this war — and ultimately the mayoral race — is likely doomed to political oblivion.
Tory needs to win the ad battle to maintain the momentum that has seen him rise to first place in polls in recent weeks. At the same time, Chow must use the ads to help restart her campaign in light of the fact she has fallen from first place to a poor third behind Tory and disgraced incumbent Mayor Rob Ford.
On Monday, Chow launched the ad war by releasing her first radio commercials in which she unveiled her new campaign theme, “Real progress now.”
Tory countered on Tuesday by running his first TV ad, a slick 30-second production focused on traffic gridlock and ending with him promising to solve the city’s transit woes quickly.
Ford, whose campaign seems to be running on a shoestring, isn’t expected to rely much, if at all, on paid commercials. What few ads he will run likely will focus on his campaign theme of “Promises made, promises kept.”
So how did the Chow and Tory teams devise their ad strategies?
And do they believe political ads really work?
For Chow, a key thinking is to put herself front and centre in both the TV and radio spots, speaking directly to the camera and microphone rather than a having a professional announcer talk on her behalf.
While some political experts believe the impact of such ads are often exaggerated, top organizers for Tory and Chow agree the ads are important
Because Chow is not naturally the smoothest speaker and has a bit of an accent, the goal is to let voters hear her speak openly, clearly and forcefully in the ads.
Her first two radio ads airing this week are designed to stress the immediacy of her policies, especially on transit, and to provide a helpful contrast between Tory and herself for voters.
Future Chow ads will focus heavily on her “life experience” of being an immigrant to Canada, having to learn English and with her family struggling to make ends meet.
It’s a background shared by many people in Toronto, and she will talk about knowing what these residents have gone through.
Importantly, Chow’s team had hoped to save much of its ad budget to the final weeks of the campaign. But her poor showing in recent polls has prompted them to launch the ads earlier and more frequently than they originally planned.
In contrast, Tory will save the bulk of his ad budget until after Oct. 1. His first TV ad will run for just another week, as will his second wave of radio ads now on the air.
As he has done in his current commercials, Tory will focus future ads on issues, particularly gridlock and transit, which polls suggest are the top concerns for voters.
No one on either Tory or Chow’s team will say publicly how much they intend to spend on the ads. Election rules limit overall spending to about $1.6 million. Insiders, though, say spending on ads will easily run into several hundred thousand dollars each.
But are Tory and Chow wasting their money? Do political ads really work?
While some political experts believe the impact of such ads are often exaggerated, top organizers for Tory and Chow agree the ads are important, allowing the candidates to contrast their policy promises, raise their profile and issue a call to action, namely to vote for them on Oct. 27.
Also, the ads reach residents who normal tune out news about politicians, providing information they won’t otherwise seek.
They also do matter with undecided voters, who now represent about 17 per cent of voters.
The fact is Tory and Chow can’t afford not to run the ads. If they didn’t, voters might wonder if they were serious candidates, if they were running out of money or had something to hide.
That’s especially true with the huge block of voters who are still undecided.
And because so many people won’t know who they will support until they actually cast their ballot, the ad war — love it or hate it — will continue.