Pro-independence movement suffers setback in latest poll
U.K. leaders scramble to keep Scotland from separating as Yes and No results close
EDINBURGH— Scottish nationalist leader Alex Salmond’s bid for independence lost ground in an opinion poll a week before a referendum that could lead to the breakup of Britain after more than three centuries.
The poll by Survation for the Daily Record newspaper in Glasgow put the No lead at six percentage points when excluding undecided voters, with 47 per cent support for the Yes campaign and 53 per cent opposed to independence. The results follow a survey by YouGov last weekend that put the Yes side ahead for the first time, a swing that sent the pound tumbling.
It was one of a series of blows to hit the Yes campaign Wednesday night. Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking and Clydesdale Bank all said they were working on plans to move some operations out of Scotland in the event of independence. And the Scotsman newspaper called on voters to reject independence.
Salmond said Thursday the RBS move wouldn’t affect any jobs and accused London-based politicians of a “scaremongering” operation. “The people of Scotland have moved beyond this sort of intimidation and for that reason are moving toward the Yes campaign,” Salmond told the BBC.
The outcome is “very hard to predict,” said Andrew Hawkins, chairman of polling company ComRes. “Referendums are difficult for polling companies, but I’m increasingly of the view that it will be a tight win by No.”
That may offer reassurance to Prime Minister David Cameron and fellow British party leaders after they made emergency trips to Scotland Wednesday to urge Scots to recoil from seeking independence in the Sept. 18 vote. It might also give some respite to traders and investors concerned about further declines in the value of the pound.
The results of the poll are barely changed from the last survey by Survation, published on Aug. 28. When taking into account all respondents, 42 per cent said they would vote Yes, up one point, and 48 per cent No, unchanged. At the same time, 10 per cent said they were undecided how to vote. The people yet to make up their minds are being courted by both sides as the campaigns enter their final week. “We are better together,” the Scotsman said in an editorial Thursday. Scotland’s best interests lie “in continuing the union,” it said. “You’ve heard a lot of what I call arguments of the head, but it’s also important we make arguments of the heart,” Cameron told workers at life insurer Scottish Widows in Edinburgh. “I would be heartbroken if this family of nations was torn apart. Don’t for one second think the rest of the U.K. is indifferent. These islands are our home.” In the audience was Jeff Martin, 42, an accountant originally from Sunderland, northeast England, who has lived in Edinburgh for 14 years. “I’m getting nervous because of what the opinion polls are saying,” he said afterward. He will vote No, “but if it’s Yes, I become Scottish, I suppose.” The Survation poll covered 1,000 residents of Scotland on Sept. 5-9 and the margin of error was 3.1 percentage points. It illustrates the spread of results that confound attempts to predict the referendum outcome. The five main polls this month have measured the Yes vote at between 38 per cent and 47 per cent, with No ranging from 39 per cent to 48 per cent and undecideds at anything between 7 per cent and 23 per cent.
In the past week, YouGov put the independence camp one point ahead, and TNS had them one point behind. Those results spurred a flurry of activity from opponents of independence. Ed Miliband, leader of the opposition Labour Party, also travelled to Scotland to make a pitch for the union, as did Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat deputy prime minister.
Meanwhile, more companies have been voicing concern over the breakup of Britain since the polls shifted.