Amid the uncertainty, some answers
What is the deadline for Rob Ford to take his name off of the ballot?
Friday at 2 p.m. So that is the deadline for him to drop out of the race?
No: many candidates drop out of the race after the deadline. Their names remain on the ballot, but they announce that they are no longer running.
In 2010, for example, Rocco Rossi announced he was withdrawing two weeks before the election. He ended up getting a small number of votes, 5,012, but wasn’t a factor in the outcome. So what’s the actual significance of the Friday deadline?
That’s also the deadline for candidates to put their names on the ballot. If Councillor Doug Ford, the mayor’s brother and campaign manager, wants to run in his place, he has to sign up by Friday at 2. If Doug Ford doesn’t put his own name on the ballot now, can he take over the campaign for Rob Ford at a later date?
No. There’s no candidate-substituting. Only candidates whose names are on the ballot by Friday at 2 p.m. can run. Could both Fords be on the ballot at the same time?
Sure: it would be perfectly legal for Doug Ford to sign up as a kind of backup plan while Rob Ford remains on the ballot for now. But some voters could be confused by the two sideby-side names, so it wouldn’t be ideal for them. If Doug Ford runs, can he spend the donations Rob Ford has received?
No. That money belongs to the Rob Ford campaign, and Doug Ford would have to quickly raise his own money. On the other hand, none of Rob Ford’s spending would count against Doug Ford’s $1.3-million campaign spending limit, so Doug Ford could theoretically spend hundreds of thousands more over the next six weeks than John Tory and Olivia Chow could.
It’s possible that Doug Ford could also make use of materials from Rob Ford’s campaign.
Many of Rob Ford’s signs, for example, say “Ford for Mayor,” without a first name.
“It could be that Doug Ford ‘buys’ campaign materials and uses them in his campaign, which would be legitimate if done at market rates,” said Ken Froese of Froese Forensic Partners, a firm that conducts elections audits. Does Doug Ford actually have any interest in running? It’s not clear. In 2012, when it appeared there was a chance that Rob Ford might be kicked out of office in a conflict of interest case and banned from running in a byelection, he strongly considered running in his brother’s place.
More recently, he has repeatedly expressed relief and happiness that he is leaving city hall to return to his business, Deco Labels and Tags, and spend time living in Chicago, where the company’s American operations are based.
What would Doug’s chances be?
It’s hard to know if previous polling on Doug Ford would be applicable to such an unusual situation. That previ- ous polling, though, suggests Doug Ford has always been less popular than Rob Ford. In November, at the height of Rob Ford’s crack cocaine scandal, the mayor’s approval rating was 42 per cent, while Doug Ford’s was 36 per cent, according to Forum Research. Doug Ford, a first-time officeholder who spent much of his time in Chicago for several years before he was elected, does not have the reputation for door-knocking and call-returning Rob Ford spent 10 years establishing as a councillor. How would the race be affected if no Ford were on the ballot? The race would essentially turn into a one-on-one contest between John Tory and Olivia Chow. Chow, who has fallen far behind Tory in the current three-way race, could benefit: it appeared that some percentage of anti-Ford voters had flocked to Tory as the candidate most likely to beat the controversial mayor. Ford’s exit would eliminate those strategic voting concerns entirely. Tory, however, would remain the favourite. His approval rating has consistently been higher than Chow’s, and polls suggest he is now preferred over Chow on almost every measure. He led Chow by 19 points, 40 to 21, in the most recent poll.
When is the election?
October 27, 2014. When does the next mayor actually take power?
December 1, 2014. If Rob Ford takes a leave of absence, who will be in charge of the city until then? Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly. Kelly, a veteran Scarborough councillor, ran the city when Ford took a two-month leave of absence in June and July to get treatment for his addictions. Kelly was widely praised for bringing calm and stability to the government. Campaign aside, would a prolonged Ford absence affect anything at city hall before December? Not really. City council is on recess for the election, so no legislative business is being done.