THE ROAD TO REVOLUTION
Driverless cars are just around the corner, and some parts of them could already be sitting in your garage
Like many young women and men before him, Michael Skupien fancies himself a revolutionary. The world he sees is on the cusp of great change, and he plans to be there to usher it in.
That’s why he and a buddy from school built a selfdriving golf cart and plan to market the machine as an auto-shuttle for resorts and seniors homes.
Not quite storming the Bastille, but still.
“The two of us have long been fascinated by self-driving cars,” Skupien, 20, told the Star, referring to his University of Waterloo engineering classmate Alex Rodrigues. Inspired by the automated-vehicle work being done by companies such as Google, the pair built their golf cart over four months this summer. It uses laser sensors and super-accurate GPS to avoid obstacles and follow a preordained route on campus.
“To think that this technology is going to revolutionize society,” Skupien sighed. “It’s pretty cool.”
The Conference Board of Canada would agree with him, along with a chorus of tech writers, engineers and transportation planners. In a report released last January, the Ottawa-based think-tank called driverless cars — also known as autonomous vehicles (AVs) and robot cars — the “next disruptive technology.” Once fully adopted, the conference board concludes that AVs will save an estimated $65 billion per year in Canada by avoiding accidents. They will also prevent 80 per cent of road deaths, reduce fuel consumption and make traffic more efficient.
“It’s fairly clear that we are well beyond the safety point of no return,” says tech expert and commentator Carmi Levy, pointing to distracted and drunk driving. “Going forward, autonomous technology holds the promise of saving us from ourselves.”
From his office at Toronto city hall, Steve Buckley can see seminal change on the horizon. He believes the driverless car is going to get here; it’s only a matter of time.
His job, as general manager of transportation services, is to make sure this city is ready.
“This stuff is coming, and it’s coming probably faster than we expect,” Buckley said. “It’s like moving from the horse to the car . . . and there isn’t a clear path forward.”
Like jurisdictions all over the world, Toronto has started exploring how it will handle driverless cars. Buckley has already given presentations to heads of city divisions and is keeping tabs on how the provincial and federal governments are delving into the future of autonomous vehicles.
“We do think there are some significant local issues that need to be thought through,” Buckley said.
“Toward the end of the year, our goal is to come up with a two-year plan in terms of steps we need to take.”
What those steps will be depends on how the advent of driverless cars shakes out.
Some foresee human-driven cars using lanes next to others reserved for robot vehicles; some believe whole roads will be reserved for AVs, with many acting as “taxi bots” to serve as efficient public transportation. (Uber, the developer that has stirred controversy with its app connecting private drivers with ride-seekers, is reportedly working on driverless taxis.)
Buckley sees three possible scenarios for Toronto, and believes the city will be dealing with one of them sometime over the next three to 10 years:
Driverless cars are privately owned by individuals, who take them out onto existing roads;
Thousands of so-called taxi bots, owned by companies such as Google or Uber, flood the streets to ferry people around town;
Most likely, in Buckley’s estimation, a mixture of both — taxi bots and private, self-driving vehicles.
“We’ll likely be later testing grounds” because of the colder weather and icier roads in Canada, “but hopefully we get to learn from others, and ultimately we suspect that one form of this will be coming,” Buckley said.
“I jokingly say that one day federal regulations change and Google dumps10,000 cars on the city streets, and we’re sort of forced to deal with it.” So what needs to happen? Buckley believes traffic signal systems would need to be tweaked, or potentially removed and replaced with roundabouts in some places. Co-ordinating with AV designers on GPS and traffic information would also be important.
“Who do you write tickets to if the car doesn’t have a driver?” STEVE BUCKLEY GENERAL MANAGER OF TRANSPORTATION SERVICES FOR THE CITY OF TORONTO
Then there are transit system questions, such as whether this could ease the burden on the TTC and procedural issues involving traffic rules and parking enforcement.
“Who do you write tickets to if the car doesn’t have a driver?” Buckley asked.
The Ontario Ministry of Transportation, meanwhile, will mainly aim to ensure road safety, while trying to avoid heavy regulations that “could stifle investment or innovation in Ontario,” said spokesperson Bob Nichols. The ministry expects AVs to drive on existing roads, possibly with minor additions such as special lanes reserved for robot cars.
The goal, said Nichols, is to develop standards that will make the province “an autonomous-friendly jurisdiction.”