Toronto Star - - BUSINESS - David Olive

Look for econ­o­mists to be pon­der­ing global oil re­cov­ery, re­stric­tions on Cuba and the state of Cana­dian ex­ports,

1. Is there any sign of global oil re­cov­ery? Watch for only tepid op­ti­mism about an in­dus­try re­cov­ery by reps of lead­ing oil and gas drilling firms who gather Mon­day at the San Fran­cisco con­fer­ence of the In­de­pen­dent Petroleum As­so­ci­a­tion of Amer­ica. But ex­pect less guarded op­ti­mism about a turn­around from Rex Tiller­son and Ben van Beur­den, CEOs of oil giants Exxon Mo­bil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell, re­spec­tively, at the Oil & Money con­fer­ence in Lon­don on Tues­day. The in­te­grated oil giants have a longer-term out­look than drillers wor­ried by scares that oil could bot­tom out at $20 (U.S.) be­fore any sign of re­cov­ery. Brisk sales of the 266 off­shore and on­shore oil con­ces­sions that Brazil is auc­tion­ing Wed­nes­day would also help build a nar­ra­tive for oil’s re­cov­ery. 2. Will Cana­dian ex­ports re­main weak? An­swer: yes, in the short term. On Tues­day, the U.S. Com­merce Dept. is ex­pected to an­nounce a widen­ing in the U.S. trade deficit for Au­gust, as U.S. ex­port mar­kets con­tin­ued their buy­ers’ strike. Cana­dian ex­ports won’t re­cover un­til U.S. ex­ports pick up, since many Cana­dian ex­ports are com­po­nents of U.S. ex­port goods. 3. How ane­mic is the global econ­omy? Be­fore an­nual meet­ings of the In­ter­na­tional Mon­e­tary Fund and World Bank in Lima from Fri­day to Sun­day, the IMF is­sues its World Eco­nomic Out­look on Tues­day. Brace for a pos­si­ble fur­ther drop in the IMF’s forecast for 2015 global GDP growth, which the IMF low­ered in July to 3.3 per cent from its ear­lier forecast of 3.5 per cent. That was be­fore fur­ther desta­bi­liza­tion from a deep­en­ing re­ces­sion in South Amer­ica’s largest econ­omy, Brazil; es­ca­la­tion in the Syr­ian refugee cri­sis; and the geopo­lit­i­cally un­set­tling Rus­sian in­ter­ven­tion in the Syr­ian civil war. 4. Is Greece sta­bi­liz­ing af­ter months of tur­moil? A three-day de­bate be­gins Mon­day in the Greek par­lia­ment on newly re-elected PM Alexis Tsipras’s pro­posed aus­ter­ity plans, while EU fi­nance min­is­ters meet to as­sess Greek progress be­fore fur­ther bailout loans to Athens. Tsipras’s new gov­ern­ment faces a con­fi­dence vote in par­lia­ment Wed­nes­day. 5. How close is a truly open Cuba? Penny Pritzker, the U.S. com­merce sec­re­tary, is in Cuba this week to talk with of­fi­cials about the eas­ing or lift­ing of re­stric­tions on trade, fi­nan­cial trans­ac­tions and tourism, and per­haps hint at re­lief from U.S. sanc­tions im­posed on the is­land na­tion since the 1960s. Pritzker, doyenne of the Chicago-based Pritzker fam­ily con­glom­er­ate (Hy­att Ho­tels), is close to U.S. Pres­i­dent Barack Obama, for whom she was a lead­ing cam­paign fundraiser. The week ahead Mon­day: No­bel Prize week be­ings with the hon­our for phys­i­ol­ogy or medicine, fol­lowed by physics (Tues­day) and chem­istry (Wed­nes­day). The Peace Prize an­nounced on Fri­day in Oslo; the eco­nom­ics prize on Oct. 12 . . . Job growth in the U.S. ser­vice sec­tor, ac­count­ing for al­most 90 per cent of the econ­omy, is re­leased, and it prob­a­bly grew at a slower rate in Septem­ber than the pre­vi­ous month. That may weigh against the ex­pected U.S. Fed rate hike ex­pected by year-end. Tues­day: Mi­crosoft Corp. un­veils Lu­mia phones, Sur­face tablets and other de­vices to run on its latest Win­dows 10 op­er­at­ing sys­tem. McDon­ald’s Corp. rolls out all-day break­fast across its U.S. stores to re­vive sales. Mickey D sales are off 9.7 per cent over the past five quar­ters . . . cor­po­rate earn­ings in­clude Pep­siCo Inc., Yum! Brands Inc. (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) . . . lead­ing in­di­ca­tors in­clude Canada trade bal­ance (Aug.) and Ger­man fac­tory or­ders (Aug.). Wed­nes­day: Volk­swa­gen faces a dead­line to ex­plain to Ger­man reg­u­la­tors how it plans to re­call 2.8 mil­lion diese­lengine mod­els in its home mar­ket that are im­pli­cated in a pol­lu­tion-test cheat­ing scan­dal un­cov­ered by U.S. reg­u­la­tors . . . cor­po­rate earn­ings in­clude Mon­santo Co., U.S No. 2 wine­maker Con­stel­la­tion Brands Inc., U.K. su­per­mar­ket gi­ant Tesco . . . Mis­ery all over: Nor­way, among the world’s most pros­per­ous economies, un­veils a 2016 bud­get of stim­u­lus spend­ing and tax cuts to cope with dis­tress from plung­ing oil rev­enue . . . lead­ing in­di­ca­tors in­clude China for­eign re­serves (Sept.) and Ger­man, U.K. in­dus­trial pro­duc­tion (Aug.). Thurs­day: Mary Barra, CEO of Gen­eral Mo­tors Co. and long­time GM se­nior ex­ec­u­tive, is to give a sworn de­po­si­tion in Hous­ton on her role in GM’s faulty-ig­ni­tion scan­dal, linked to at least 124 deaths . . . cor­po­rate earn­ings in­clude Al­coa Inc. . . . U.S. law­mak­ers choose the next speaker of the House of Rep­re­sen­ta­tives, the job third in line to the pres­i­dency. Ei­ther House Ma­jor­ity Leader Kevin McCarthy or Rep. Daniel Web­ster will re­place John Boehner, who on Sept. 25 shocked Washington with his res­ig­na­tion as speaker . . . In Lima, Mark Car­ney, Bank of Eng­land gover­nor and for­mer Bank of Canada gover­nor, joins IMF man­ag­ing di­rec­tor Chris­tine La­garde and Brazil­ian Fi­nance Min­is­ter Joaquim Levy in fore­cast­ing global eco­nomic prospects. Car­ney will later speak on fi­nanc­ing for sus­tain­able de­vel­op­ment. Car­ney’s suc­ces­sor in Ot­tawa, Stephen Poloz, ad­dresses the In­sti­tute of In­ter­na­tional Fi­nance an­nual meet­ing, also in Lima, on Satur­day . . . lead­ing in­di­ca­tors in­clude Canada hous­ing starts (Sept.). Fri­day: Ap­ple Inc.’s iPhone 6s and 6s Plus be­come avail­able in Italy, Rus­sia, Spain, Mexico and 36 other coun­tries . . . Uni­ver­sal Pic­tures’ Steve Jobs biopic is re­leased. Ap­ple co­founder Steve Woz­niak, granted an ad­vanced screen­ing, gives ac­tor Michael Fass­ben­der a thumbs up for his por­trayal of Jobs . . . lead­ing in­di­ca­tors in­clude: Canada job­less re­port (Sept.). do­live@thes­


Smoke bil­lows from a re­fin­ery in Ye­men; could things be look­ing up for the global oil in­dus­try? The oil giants are meet­ing in San Fran­cisco and in Lon­don this week.

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