THE WEEK AHEAD
Look for economists to be pondering global oil recovery, restrictions on Cuba and the state of Canadian exports,
1. Is there any sign of global oil recovery? Watch for only tepid optimism about an industry recovery by reps of leading oil and gas drilling firms who gather Monday at the San Francisco conference of the Independent Petroleum Association of America. But expect less guarded optimism about a turnaround from Rex Tillerson and Ben van Beurden, CEOs of oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell, respectively, at the Oil & Money conference in London on Tuesday. The integrated oil giants have a longer-term outlook than drillers worried by scares that oil could bottom out at $20 (U.S.) before any sign of recovery. Brisk sales of the 266 offshore and onshore oil concessions that Brazil is auctioning Wednesday would also help build a narrative for oil’s recovery. 2. Will Canadian exports remain weak? Answer: yes, in the short term. On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Dept. is expected to announce a widening in the U.S. trade deficit for August, as U.S. export markets continued their buyers’ strike. Canadian exports won’t recover until U.S. exports pick up, since many Canadian exports are components of U.S. export goods. 3. How anemic is the global economy? Before annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Lima from Friday to Sunday, the IMF issues its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. Brace for a possible further drop in the IMF’s forecast for 2015 global GDP growth, which the IMF lowered in July to 3.3 per cent from its earlier forecast of 3.5 per cent. That was before further destabilization from a deepening recession in South America’s largest economy, Brazil; escalation in the Syrian refugee crisis; and the geopolitically unsettling Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war. 4. Is Greece stabilizing after months of turmoil? A three-day debate begins Monday in the Greek parliament on newly re-elected PM Alexis Tsipras’s proposed austerity plans, while EU finance ministers meet to assess Greek progress before further bailout loans to Athens. Tsipras’s new government faces a confidence vote in parliament Wednesday. 5. How close is a truly open Cuba? Penny Pritzker, the U.S. commerce secretary, is in Cuba this week to talk with officials about the easing or lifting of restrictions on trade, financial transactions and tourism, and perhaps hint at relief from U.S. sanctions imposed on the island nation since the 1960s. Pritzker, doyenne of the Chicago-based Pritzker family conglomerate (Hyatt Hotels), is close to U.S. President Barack Obama, for whom she was a leading campaign fundraiser. The week ahead Monday: Nobel Prize week beings with the honour for physiology or medicine, followed by physics (Tuesday) and chemistry (Wednesday). The Peace Prize announced on Friday in Oslo; the economics prize on Oct. 12 . . . Job growth in the U.S. service sector, accounting for almost 90 per cent of the economy, is released, and it probably grew at a slower rate in September than the previous month. That may weigh against the expected U.S. Fed rate hike expected by year-end. Tuesday: Microsoft Corp. unveils Lumia phones, Surface tablets and other devices to run on its latest Windows 10 operating system. McDonald’s Corp. rolls out all-day breakfast across its U.S. stores to revive sales. Mickey D sales are off 9.7 per cent over the past five quarters . . . corporate earnings include PepsiCo Inc., Yum! Brands Inc. (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell) . . . leading indicators include Canada trade balance (Aug.) and German factory orders (Aug.). Wednesday: Volkswagen faces a deadline to explain to German regulators how it plans to recall 2.8 million dieselengine models in its home market that are implicated in a pollution-test cheating scandal uncovered by U.S. regulators . . . corporate earnings include Monsanto Co., U.S No. 2 winemaker Constellation Brands Inc., U.K. supermarket giant Tesco . . . Misery all over: Norway, among the world’s most prosperous economies, unveils a 2016 budget of stimulus spending and tax cuts to cope with distress from plunging oil revenue . . . leading indicators include China foreign reserves (Sept.) and German, U.K. industrial production (Aug.). Thursday: Mary Barra, CEO of General Motors Co. and longtime GM senior executive, is to give a sworn deposition in Houston on her role in GM’s faulty-ignition scandal, linked to at least 124 deaths . . . corporate earnings include Alcoa Inc. . . . U.S. lawmakers choose the next speaker of the House of Representatives, the job third in line to the presidency. Either House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy or Rep. Daniel Webster will replace John Boehner, who on Sept. 25 shocked Washington with his resignation as speaker . . . In Lima, Mark Carney, Bank of England governor and former Bank of Canada governor, joins IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and Brazilian Finance Minister Joaquim Levy in forecasting global economic prospects. Carney will later speak on financing for sustainable development. Carney’s successor in Ottawa, Stephen Poloz, addresses the Institute of International Finance annual meeting, also in Lima, on Saturday . . . leading indicators include Canada housing starts (Sept.). Friday: Apple Inc.’s iPhone 6s and 6s Plus become available in Italy, Russia, Spain, Mexico and 36 other countries . . . Universal Pictures’ Steve Jobs biopic is released. Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak, granted an advanced screening, gives actor Michael Fassbender a thumbs up for his portrayal of Jobs . . . leading indicators include: Canada jobless report (Sept.). email@example.com
Smoke billows from a refinery in Yemen; could things be looking up for the global oil industry? The oil giants are meeting in San Francisco and in London this week.