Harper cuts a knotty deal

Prime Minister Stephen Harper claims to have cut “a tremendous deal” by signing on to the Pacific Rim trade pact. And maybe he has. But Harper may also be gilding the lily. This is a knotty business, and we haven’t begun to unravel the tangled details.

Most Canadians know little about the Trans-Pacific Partnership. That’s hardly a surprise given its complexity, its breadth, its rollout over15 years and the fact that it was cooked up largely in secret with no parliamentary debate or public hearings.

As a latecomer to the 12-nation Pacific trade talks, Canada’s Conservative government was forced into a largely defensive stance. As Harper sees it, we would have faced “devastating” consequences had we been left out. So our negotiators went in with a weak mandate to hang in there with the rest of the club to obtain tariff-freer access to a huge trading block, while paying as few dues as possible. Opting out was never a serious option.

We’ll only know how much Canada has yielded to its Pacific Rim partners and multinational corporations — on issues that range from investorstate dispute settlement mechanisms to Internet use to patent protection on drugs — when we see the fine print. As for potential job and revenue losses or gains, it will be years before we have a real clue.

But Harper’s decision to earmark $4.3 billion to help Canada’s threatened dairy, chicken and egg farmers adjust is one signal that this “gold standard” of a managed-trade deal is not without risk. He also promises investment support for the auto sector.

Of course, none of this is going to stop Harper from going into the final days of the election campaign trumpeting his success at securing tariff-freer access to a trade group with 800 million customers and a combined output of $28 trillion. While Canada already has privileged access to the big American and Mexican markets, the Pacific deal offers the promise, at least, of selling more Canadian goods to Japan, Australia, Malaysia and Vietnam. And our sales stand to increase further if China, India and others one day join under the same rules. That’s not to be sneezed at.

Still, the TPP’s critics warn of revenue losses as foreign suppliers get more access to our dairy and poultry markets: 3.25 per cent for dairy and 2.1 per cent for poultry. As well, the 6.1-per-cent tariff on imported vehicles will be phased out, as long as they have 45-percent content from the TPP region, which is lower than the current 62.5 per cent North American regional-content provision. The auto parts industry warns that will mean job losses in Ontario, but even that situation isn’t entirely clear. Those potential losses must be weighed against the risk of being left outside the TPP — which is why some big parts makers are supporting the deal.

On the plus side, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce predicts “huge gains” for farmers, food processors, and firms in forestry, mining, aerospace, financial services and information technology,

Although Canadians will soon get a look at the details, voters won’t be in a position to cast an informed ballot on Oct. 19. It will be up to the next Parliament to thoroughly air, debate, ratify and implement this hugely complex package next year, or walk away from it and risk being isolated.

For now, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau seems more disposed to accept the pact than the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair. The Liberals “strongly support free trade,” he says, subject to “full and open debate.” The NDP won’t be held to a deal struck by an outgoing government with no mandate to bind its successor. But both leaders are keeping their options open. That makes sense.

After all, the deal still must win the approval of the potentially balky U.S. Congress and other foreign legislatures in the next two years. What prime ministers and presidents have joined together, politicians may yet put asunder.

As the Star wrote three years ago when Canada joined the talks, “the question for Parliament is: Will the expected economic gains for Canada offset any giveaways we may face?” That’s still the big question. Until we see a credible cost/benefit analysis, it will be premature to judge.

Until we see the details, there’s no way to know whether the secretive Trans-Pacific Partnership is in Canada’s interests