The odds, and keys, favour Blue Jays
But there are reasons Texas just might have a chance at winning
The Blue Jays are the favourites to beat the Texas Rangers in their five-game American League Division Series, which opens Thursday in Toronto. In fact, Las Vegas has the Jays as the favourites to win the World Series this year. But, as we know, anything can happen in the postseason. So here are five reasons why the Jays should beat the Texas Rangers and five reasons why they still might lose.
WHY THE JAYS SHOULD WIN
A better offence This series pits two of baseball’s best offences against each other, but the Jays have the better one. Only one team scored more than the Rangers in the second half and that was Toronto, whose offence led the majors in runs scored this year by a margin of more than 100 runs. The Jays hit for a higher average and more power than Texas, while also reaching base at a higher clip and striking out less. Mitch Moreland, Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo led the Rangers in home runs this year, combining for 68 dingers. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion led the Jays and combined for 120. A deeper rotation With David Price at the top, the Jays have the better starting staff. In secondhalf ERA, three of the top five qualified American League pitchers were Jays, with Price, Marco Estrada and R.A. Dickey all posting ERAs of 2.80 or better since the all-star break. That doesn’t even include Marcus Stroman, who has allowed just five earned runs in his four starts since returning to the Jays in September. The Rangers’ rotation, meanwhile, posted a 4.55 second-half ERA, with only Cole Hamels finding his way below the 4.00 mark. The weak Texas bullpen The Rangers’ bullpen has been better since the all-star break and really quite good in the final month of the season, but it remains a question mark. Rangers’ relievers combined for the highest homerun rate of any playoff contender, which doesn’t bode well for them against the Jays’ homer-happy offence. Closer Shawn Tolleson has struggled in the final month of the season.
But former Jays farmhand Sam Dyson hasn’t allowed an earned run since Aug. 27.
The Jays feast on lefties
The Jays’ heavily right-handed lineup has crushed left-handed pitchers all season, with an .818 onbase-plus-slugging (OPS) percentage, which is more than 100 points higher than the league average. The Rangers, meanwhile, have hinted they will have three lefties in their post-season rotation: Cole Hamels, Derek Holland and Martin Perez.
Baserunning
The Jays have the highest stolenbase-success rate in the majors this season and they are expected to use Dalton Pompey as a pinch-runner off the bench. The Rangers’ starting catcher, Robinson Chirinos, has thrown out 29 per cent of prospective base stealers this season, below the 32 per cent league average. Their backup, Chris Gimenez, is worse, throwing out just 10 per cent of those who ran on him this year.
WHY THE RANGERS MIGHT WIN
Texas heat
If any team was as hot as the Jays in the latter half of the season, it was the Rangers, who won nearly two-thirds of their games since Aug. 1, overtaking the Houston Astros for first place in the process. They outscored every team but the Jays in the second half, while Shin-Soo Choo (who was named the American League’s player of the month for September) and Adrian Beltre (who was named the American League’s player of the week) put together monster final months of the season.
Cole Hamels
The ace left-hander is to the Rangers what David Price is to the Jays. Case in point: the final game of the season when, with the Rangers’ bullpen depleted, Hamels threw a complete-game shutout to clinch the division. The 31-year-old has loads of experience pitching in the post-sea- son, including a World Series MVP award from 2008, when he led the Philadelphia Phillies over the Tampa Bay Rays, which, by coincidence, then featured Price as a rookie closer.
Yovani Gallardo
The Rangers’ righty has owned the Jays this season, shutting them out over two starts, including a complete game in Toronto on June 27 — one of only five times the Jays were shut out all season. Collectively, the Jays’ lineup has posted a measly .683 on-base-plus-slugging against Gallardo in his career, but Edwin Encarnacion has always hit him well. The Jays’ slugger is 5-for-16 against Gallardo with three homers and three walks.
Adrian Beltre
The 36-year-old Dominican has been en fuego in the final month of the season, hitting .344 with a .957 OPS. He was even better in the season’s final week, hitting .500 with a pair of homers to earn player of the week honours as the Rangers clinched the AL West. Against David Price in his career, he has hit .306 with two home runs and four doubles in 36 at-bats.
Roberto Osuna
The Jays’ rookie closer has stum- bled badly in the final month of the season — adding more than half-arun to his ERA while allowing more homers than he did over the season’s first five months combined — and he could be a liability in a short series where the margin for error shrinks considerably. The 20-year-old righthander — who has thrown more innings this year than ever before in his professional career — allowed runs in 11 of his first 55 appearances this season and five in his final 13. It will be white-knuckle time for Jays’ fans until he gets a post-season save or two under his belt.