Forecast: Too hot for human habitation
Report warns temperatures in Persian Gulf could soon make living there impossible
Rising global temperatures could soon push the sun-baked cities of the Persian Gulf across a threshold unknown since the start of civilization: the first to experience temperatures that are literally too hot for human survival.
A scientific study released Monday warns that at least five of the region’s great metropolises could see summer days that surpass the “human habitability” limit, with heat and humidity so high that even the healthiest people could not withstand more than a few hours outdoors.
The report in the journal Nature Climate Change says booming cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha could cross the threshold by the end of the century, if planetary temperatures continue to rise at current rates. Not far behind is the Saudi holy city of Mecca, a destination for millions of Muslim pilgrims every year.
On the hottest summer days, inhabitants of those cities could experience a combination of heat and humidity so high that the human body is no longer capable of shedding the excess heat through perspiration, according to the report’s authors, a pair of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Loyola Marymount University.
“Our results expose a regional hot spot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future,” the authors write in the study.
The report examines different scenarios for climate change over the coming decades, focusing on a key heat measurement known as the “wet-bulb temperature,” which includes humidity and evaporation rates, averaged over several hours. A wet-bulb temperature of 35 C is regarded as the survivability limit for healthy people.
For years, climate scientists have postulated that parts of the Earth could cross the 35-degree mark in future centuries if global warming continues. But that day could come much sooner for cities in the Persian Gulf, where temperatures soar beyond 45 degrees in the hottest summer months, the researchers said. Gulf cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha already suffer from high heatindex values that contribute to high rates of heatstroke among outdoor workers. But the authors warn that city planners will have to make major adjustments as temperatures begin to cross the lethal 35-degree threshold.
“It is an upper limit to adaptability to climate change due to heat stress,” MIT researcher Elfatih Eltahir told reporters at a news conference called to discuss the findings.
The report is the latest to highlight dangerous weather extremes that could be experienced in the relatively near future if atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases continue to rise at current rates.
A policy statement released Monday by the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) warned of significant new health threats to children if global temperatures continue to climb. The threats range from higher rates of heat-related illnesses to outbreaks of diseases normally associated with the tropics.
“Children are uniquely at risk to the direct impacts of climate change,” said Samantha Ahdoot, lead author of an AAP policy statement published in the research journal Science.