NDP’s election hopes hinge on democratic renewal
MONTREAL— In culling the 2011 New Democrat herd, Quebec voters were more surgical than those of other regions of the country last Monday.
The NDP lost more seats in Quebec than anywhere else but it was spared the wholesale slaughter that took place across Atlantic Canada, in the national capital and Toronto. NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair has just appointed his defeated foreign affairs critic Paul Dewar as his senior transition adviser but many more party stars — including a host of promising recruits — will be spending the next four years out of the federal loop. The party talent pool is shallower as a result of the election, especially outside Quebec.
By comparison, the 16 New Democrat Quebec survivors — starting with Mulcair himself — include most of the province’s more solid performers.
Former diplomat Hélène Laverdière defeated Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe in Laurier— Sainte-Marie for the second time.
The media-savvy Alexandre Boulerice was re-elected with almost 50 per cent of the vote cast in his Montreal riding.
Romeo Saganash was the first aboriginal MP ever elected in Quebec. He will again represent his northern Quebec riding in the next Parliament.
Ruth Ellen Brosseau, who first came to fame for winning her seat in absentia while on a trip to Las Vegas, parlayed a lot of hard work in her riding into a ticket back to the Commons.
Economist Daniel Caron, who was elected in the Rimouski area, is the only surviving member of the finance trio that presented the party’s fiscal framework last month. Finance critic Peggy Nash and former Saskatchewan finance minister Andrew Thomson both went down in defeat in Toronto.
As counterintuitive as it may seem, last week’s election probably consolidated Quebec’s hand within the federal NDP.
Quebec MPs still make up the largest provincial contingent in the 44-member caucus.
They outnumber their Ontario counterparts by a margin of two to one.
And Quebecers stuck with the NDP in the same proportion as did voters in Saskatchewan and British Columbia — two provinces that have a long-standing New Democrat tradition.
The comparative strength of the Quebec results probably means that, at least for the foreseeable future, Mulcair is safe in the leader’s job. But four years is a long time to spend in a spot twice removed from power in the Commons just to get a chance to throw the same loaded election dice again.
Based on its own recent experience in Quebec, the NDP can always tell itself that the kind of wave that helped propel the Liberals to power last week is bound to be a one-election phenomenon or that Justin Trudeau is bound to lose some of his stardust over a mandate in office.
In the next election, there are actually good odds that the NDP will recoup some of the prime real estate lost to the Liberals last Monday. But that would bring the party back only to square one.
In the past, it is the Conservatives who have benefited from declining Liberal fortunes. Provided the party manages to unite around Stephen Harper’s successor, its path to power is more obvious than that of the New Democrats.
Parties that act like gerbils and expect to achieve something other than going around in circles from jumping on the same old spinning wheel stand only to tire themselves out. The Parti Québécois and its Bloc cousin are cases in point these days.
Trudeau has promised to deliver electoral reform in time for the election in 2019. He is the first Liberal leader to support moving away from the first-past-the-poll voting system.
The preferred Liberal alternative is a ranked ballot. The NDP favours a mixed proportional approach. In an upcoming national discussion on the available options, the New Democrats will not lack for allies for that position.
But even a ranked ballot would go some way toward altering the mathematics that has turned the Liberal/ NDP rivalry into a lose-lose game for progressive voters. Trudeau has said he would also take a closer look at making voting mandatory. That, too, could be a game-changer for the NDP.
If there is one battle horse the New Democrats should ride in the next Parliament — even if it could mean sometimes riding in tandem with their Liberal rivals — it should be that of democratic renewal. Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer. Her column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.