Here come the ‘hybrids’

Normally applied to electric cars and cross-bred flowers, the word “hybrid” has fast become a staple in Toronto’s transit and transportation debates. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Witness the events of this past week.

A new and improved alternative to the ill-conceived three-stop Scarborough subway extension was released by city staff on Thursday. The “hybrid” model calls for a shorter subway line, with only one additional station, and construction of a much-needed lightrail route with 17 stops. It stands a good chance of finally ending what has been described as the “guerrilla war” between subway and light-rail advocates.

Three “hybrid” alternatives to replace the crumbling eastern section of the Gardiner Expressway were issued two days earlier. The favoured solution appears to be an option called (what else?) Hybrid 3. With a long-term cost of just over $1billion, it would shift the expressway further north and open up more land for waterfront development without worsening traffic congestion.

This approach is a reasonable middle ground between the people who demanded that the Gardiner be demolished and replaced with a streetlevel boulevard, and those who insisted that the expressway remain, even though it’s an eyesore on the waterfront.

Then there’s Mayor John Tory’s signature SmartTrack “surface subway” plan. It underwent significant shrinkage this past week, with the mayor abandoning a key expansion of heavy-rail service. What remains hasn’t yet been declared a hybrid. But so much uncertainty clouds Tory’s transit vision that Torontonians could still end up with “a thing composed of mixed or incongruous elements.”

In other words, what The Canadian Oxford Dictionary defines as a “hybrid.”

During the last election and in the year that followed, Tory steadfastly dismissed concern that a major part of his plan would be too expensive to deliver. At one point, he labelled those venturing to question his SmartTrack system as Douglas or Debbie Downers.

But, whoops — it turns out Douglas and Debbie were right, at least on the practicality of the plan’s so-called western spur. A consultant and city staff concluded that running a heavy-rail line on this route, from Mount Dennis to Mississauga’s Airport Corporate Centre, could cost up to $7.7 billion.

To put that in context, the price tag for Tory’s entire 22-station SmartTrack system is supposed to be only about $8 billion. Furthermore, the expert report released on Tuesday found that a light-rail line originally envisioned for the area could carry four times as many riders as the mayor’s much-vaunted heavy-rail approach, and cost just $1.3 billion.

To his credit, Tory bowed to the evidence and dropped the ill-judged western spur from his plan. “You will not see me digging in my heels and insisting on charging ahead with things that don’t make sense,” he said.

Tory did receive some encouraging news in the form of a new ridership study. It found SmartTrack could attract more than 320,000 “daily boardings” by 2031 and also relieve commuter pressure on Toronto’s already packed Yonge subway.

But there’s a huge caveat here: Ridership projections are extremely fluid, subject to variables that can alter the final result. For example, the impressive maximum for daily boardings holds true only if SmartTrack trains are available every five minutes. And it’s not at all clear that this intense level of service is possible.

Other factors affecting predicted ridership include fare structures, assumed population growth, projected employment levels, ultimate alignment of the system’s routes, and the “horizon year” selected for analysis (2031or 2041, for example). It’s all very hazy.

SmartTrack’s uncertainties don’t end there. Whether Union Station can even handle all the passengers this new service might deliver remains under study. Successful integration of TTC and GO Transit fares has been described as a “make or break” factor, but it’s not clear how that will be done. And Tory is relying on a questionable budget device, called tax increment financing, to pay for the city’s share of this project.

With the western spur heavy-rail line now on the rubbish heap, commuters have yet to see how much of Tory’s remaining plan will ultimately make sense and what else will be dropped. When it’s all thrashed out they shouldn’t be surprised to find something rather familiar: yet another transit and transportation “hybrid.”

Compromise solutions to the Gardiner and Scarborough transit have emerged at city hall