David Cameron’s historic gamble on Europe
LONDON— In a gamble of historic proportions, Prime Minister David Cameron is betting his own political future and the future of his country on his ability to coax the British people to vote Yes in a referendum on whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union.
The In/Out vote on June 23 will turn on calculations of national interest, emotional feelings about the level of immigration and a centuries-old wariness about the dangers for this island kingdom if it draws too close to the continent.
Cameron managed to lead his party to a majority victory in Britain’s general election last spring. But with that victory came the prime minister’s pledge, made well before the election, to hold a national referendum on British membership in the EU.
Following a summit of the leaders of the 28 member countries of the EU in Brussels, last week, Cameron emerged with what he called “special status” for Britain in the EU. Cameron came home with a deal he claimed would guarantee British sovereignty, allow his country to withhold inwork benefits from migrants from EU countries for an emergency period of seven years, and enable British financiers and exporters to maintain secure access to the vast continental market.
On Sunday, Boris Johnson, the highly influential mayor of London, announced to a media scrum in front of his home in North London that he will campaign for the No side. In a body blow to David Cameron, Johnson explained that he had to oppose British membership in what he called the increasingly undemocratic EU. Political insiders here have said that Johnson is calculating that in the current mood of populist anger against elites in Britain, he has the charisma to lead the disparate forces of the No side, including a sizable proportion of the Conservative Party, to victory. A No vote would certainly force Cameron to resign as prime minister and it is no secret that Johnson wants his job.
The emotional issue at the heart of the EU debate is immigration. Hundreds of thousands of people, many of them from Poland and Romania, have taken jobs in the UK. A fundamental principle of the European Union is the right of citizens of member countries to seek employment in any EU country on the same terms as the local population.
Playing the anti-immigrant card to great effect for the past few years has been Nigel Farage, who leads the rightwing United Kingdom Independence Party. He tours towns with high unemployment to rail that employees in some workplaces speak only Romanian and that local Brits can’t get jobs in them.
Countering anti-EU rhetoric, leading figures in the financial sector in the City of London have warned that if Britain leaves the EU, companies could decide to shift jobs to the continent. Last week, for instance, Douglas Flint, the chairman of HSBC, announced that while his company’s headquarters will remain in London, if Britain votes to leave the EU, his bank could shift 1,000 investment-banking jobs to Paris. How long London could remain the greatest financial centre on a continent to which it would have no political link is a major question on the table.
At issue is not only the U.K.’s relationship with the continent but the internal unity of the U.K. itself.
The day Johnson announced that he would support the No side, Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of the Scottish government and the leader of the Scottish National Party, stated that if England votes to leave the EU, while Scotland votes to stay, this would “almost certainly” trigger a second Scottish independence referendum.
The British have always resisted the idea that the EU should be a political and social as well as an economic union. At present, the EU contends with the volatile Syrian refugee crisis in addition to persistently high unemployment and slow economic growth. Summoning the political will to push ahead to a closer union to complete the unfinished European edifice is essential if these and other problems are to be overcome. Paradoxically, this could well prove more achievable if Britain leaves the EU. How well “little England” would do as an independent offshore island, on the other hand, is another matter entirely.