Leafs’ lottery win would end any suspense over No. 1 pick
Three years ago, Nathan MacKinnon and Seth Jones went to the MasterCard Memorial Cup tournament in Saskatoon locked in a neck-and-neck race to be No. 1 in the NHL draft.
MacKinnon had the lead by then but if Jones, a six-foot-four Portland Winterhawks blueliner, had been the star of the competition, he might have wrested that honour away from the Halifax Mooseheads centre.
It didn’t unfold that way. The Colorado Avalanche won the lottery (ahead of 30th place Florida) and took MacKinnon first. Jones slipped all the way to fourth after Alexander Barkov (Panthers) and Jonathan Drouin (Tampa Bay). If the 2013 draft were held over again, you’d have to wonder what the order would be. Possibly Barkov first, then Jones, then MacKinnon, then Drouin.
This year, the situation is very different given that none of the presumed top three picks — Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi — will be
There are a minority of NHL executives who have Finnish forward Patrik Laine No. 1 on their draft list right now
playing in the Memorial Cup, which because of it’s timing as a May tournament can have an impact on the NHL draft. Matthews played in Switzerland this year and Laine and Puljujarvi played in the Finnish elite league.
Where the final showdown may occur, however, is at the world championship in Russia, where Matthews will suit up for the United States and Laine, coming off a spectacular spring in which he was named MVP of the Finnish playoffs, will be playing for his country.
There are a minority of NHL executives who have the six-foot-four Laine No. 1 on their draft list right now, which adds intrigue to Saturday’s NHL draft lottery. He’s an explosive scorer, a righthand shot who plays the left side, which has drawn natural (if unfair) comparisons to Alex Ovechkin.
Until now, much of the suspense about the draft lottery has been centred on Matthews, and the fact that the team that draws the top pick — remember, the top three picks are up for grabs under the new lottery system — was going to get the right to draft the Arizona-born centre.
Now, with Laine pushing hard, it adds another layer of intrigue to the proceedings. Moreover, if the 18-year-old Laine steals the show at the worlds, and Matthews is just average, you really could see a scenario in which the two players are basically in a dead heat by the time the NHL draft in Buffalo rolls around. Or, and this is already possible, the identity of the top pick may revolve around which team wins the lottery.
If, for example, Edmonton wins it — stop rolling your eyes — it would be easy to imagine GM Peter Chiarelli saying that with Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl he already has enough centres, and opting to select Laine. Maybe Buffalo GM, with Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart, might feel the same way.
For the Maple Leafs, meanwhile, the 20-per-cent chance they have of landing the top pick has had their fans salivating at the thought of landing Matthews. But the reality is that Brendan Shanahan and Co., providing they don’t whiff on the pick, are going to get a very good player whether they draft first, second, third or fourth.
One NHL executive said this week that the tough choices are going to be at No. 2 and No. 4, assuming Matthews does go first. With the second pick, there are those who like the package the six-foot-four Puljujarvi brings even more than the dynamic Laine, and see him as a natural leader who led the Finns to gold at both the world junior championship and the recent world under-18 championship in Grand Forks, N.D.
At No. 4, meanwhile, with Matthews and the two Finns gone, the choices widen. Indeed, London Knights defenceman Olli Juolevi could go there, producing an unprecedented draft with three Finnish players in the top four picks.
Juolevi’s London teammate, winger Matthew Tkachuk, will be there, and given that he’s had a terrific year playing alongside Leafs draft pick Mitch Marner, there’s an obvious connection there. Cape Breton forward Pierre-Luc Dubois passed Tkachuk for No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting’s list of draft eligible North Americans this month, and as a six-foot-three youngster who can play any of the three forward positions, he would have obvious appeal as well.
For the Leafs, if they were to be at No. 4, there’s also Alexander Nylander, brother of William, who had a strong season with the OHL Mis- sissauga Steelheads. Wouldn’t that be an enticing combination moving forward?
Finally, there’s also Tyson Jost, who blew away the competition at the world under-18s after a year playing in the Tier Two B.C. junior league while waiting to enrol at the University of North Dakota this fall. He might be the best centre in the draft after Matthews, and with centre being a premium position, could go even higher than his impressive skill set might indicate. There are also those who believe Jost is such a character kid he might be the best centre, period. So what does all this mean? Well, the draft lottery, while it might be must-see TV that could generate a really surprising result, won’t on its own decide the fate of a team like the Leafs. They’re going to get a good player. It’s possible that even if they don’t have the first pick, they might get the best player, depending on possible mistakes made in front of them and the draft acumen of Mark Hunter, who will be running his second draft for the Leafs.
Marner has had a spectacular season with London, and the AHL Marlies are doing very well, both indications the Leafs may be getting their act together on the drafting and development front. As much as Marner was a pick (No. 4 last year) they needed to get right, the one this June really is too.
The main advantage of winning the lottery for the Leafs is that it would take the guesswork out of it. They’d take Matthews, even if Laine were to star at the world championship.
Since the day Mats Sundin left eight years ago, Toronto has been searching for a No. 1 centre. Matthews is that guy. But if they don’t get him, the Leafs could still get a star, and maybe even a better player.
They’re just going to have to be smarter to make that happen. Damien Cox is a broadcaster with Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada. He spent nearly 30 years covering a variety of sports for the Star, and his column appears here Saturdays. Follow him @DamoSpin.