Lone wolves pose greatest terror risk, report finds

Threat level unchanged in Canada, but number of people leaving to join terror cause has increased

OTTAWA— Lone wolves and small groups fuelled by ideology to carry out attacks are the greatest terrorist threats on Canadian soil, a new report on public safety states.

The 2016 report on terrorist threats to Canada drew a distinction between attacks “inspired” by extremist ideology versus those “directed” by terrorist organizations abroad.

“As with the 2014 attacks in Canada, an individual or small group can be inspired to carry out an act of violence . . . with little or no warning,” states the report, released Thursday morning.

“Such attacks can target areas with limited or no security, including crowded public places and public transportation. Even small-scale terrorist attacks have significant psychological and economic impacts.”

The October 2014 attacks in Saint-Jeansur-Richelieu, Que., and Ottawa seem to fit the “inspiration” category — as does the attempted attack foiled by authorities in Strathroy, Ont., earlier this month.

Aaron Driver was shot dead by police after the FBI tipped off Canadian authorities that the 24-year old, who was on a peace bond due to a suspicion he was connected to terrorist groups, planned to attack a major urban centre with a homemade bomb.

Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale said Driver’s plan shows the need for “continued vigilance.”

“Canada is fundamentally a safe and peaceful nation, but we are not naive about the security issues that dominate the world’s attention,” Goodale wrote in a statement.

The report comes as the Liberal government prepares to review Canada’s national security framework — including revisiting some elements of the previous Conservative government’s sweeping terrorism legislation, Bill C-51.

Goodale repeated that the government’s intention is to properly balance law enforcement and intelligence powers with Canadians’ civil rights.

The report points out one area where that balance will be tested: the use of encrypted communications technology. Encryption allows private citizens, companies and governments to protect their communications, business transactions and sensitive information.

But law enforcement officials in Canada and beyond have argued it also allows criminals and terrorists to evade arrest or capture. While encryption has been intensely debated in other countries — notably the United States — Canada has yet to have a public debate over its merits.

“Encryption technology helps protect the privacy of Canadians but also creates new barriers in law enforcement and national security investigations,” the report states.

“The government intends to work with Canadians, industry, and other key stakeholders and the international community to address these privacy and security concerns.”

The number of people believed to have left Canada to fight in the Middle East remains unchanged from March at 180, with most of them suspected of being in Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Authorities believe 60 “extremist travellers” have returned to Canadian soil, but not all are hardened fighters — some are suspected of financing or fundraising for terrorist groups, others of spreading propaganda.

The report suggests that 20 per cent of extremist travellers from Canada are women inspired to join Daesh in Syria.

Stephanie Carvin, a professor at Carleton University and former security analyst, said there’s good reason to believe that number will continue to fluctuate.

“I think it’s fair to say that the number will fluctuate on a number of factors, one of them being the criteria used to determine who actually goes on the list . . . secondly, the criteria for determining when someone comes off the list, if it’s because they’re dead or they’re confirmed to be a returnee . . . and then thirdly, the issue of their passport, what happens to their passport,” Carvin said in an interview Thursday.

While the number of Canadian extremist travellers is a drop in the bucket for what is essentially an international problem — some 36,500 foreign fighters are suspected of travelling to Syria since 2011 — the report notes that returnees can present a serious security concern to the country.