PREVIEW TO TONIGHT’S POLITICAL SHOWDOWN
First presidential debate offers candidates the opportunity to reshape close race and repair image
WASHINGTON— Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton. Yelling at each other, for once, instead of about each other.
The presidential debate on Monday is the first one-on-one showdown between two unpopular candidates who have tried to make the election about the abject terribleness of the other. With a record television audience expected, it offers each of them a critical opportunity to repair a tarnished image and reshape a close race. Here’s what you need to know:
The basics: Time: 9 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. Location: Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y. The format: Six 15-minute segments on topics chosen by moderator Lester Holt, two from each of the vague categories he announced last week: “America’s Direction,” “Achieving Prosperity” and “Securing America.” Holt will begin each segment with a question. Both candidates will get two minutes to respond. Then they’ll get a chance to respond to each other. The moderator: Lester Holt, anchor of NBC Nightly News since last year, has been subjected to exceptional pressure from all sides. Clinton allies, seeing a chance to capitalize on the feeble performance of NBC’s Matt Lauer at a forum earlier in September, have demanded that Holt intervene to correct Trump if he lies some more. Trump has called Holt “fair” and “a good guy” but also claimed Holt will treat him “very unfairly.” The audience: In Trump-ese: huge. There is a chance the debate will be the most-watched campaign event in American history. About 70 million people watched the first debate of 2012; a Fox News Channel executive told Adweek that he expects 80 million to watch this one. “I think there’s a lot more at stake here than in a normal presidential debate,” said Alan Schroeder, author of Presidential Debates: 50 Years of High-Risk TV. The context: Clinton’s once-large national lead has shrunk to two points over the past three weeks amid broad concerns over her honesty and, to a lesser extent, her health. She leads in enough swing states to give her a victory, but now just barely, and she is underperform- ing with millennials. Trump’s problems are numerous: a majority of the electorate thinks he lacks the knowledge and temperament to be president, non-white people overwhelmingly see him as a racist, and he, too, is widely seen as dishonest.
How much it matters: Remember this during your hypothetical middebate and post-debate freak-outs: whatever happens, even if it seems big, is unlikely to be the thing that decides the election; political science research suggests that massive debate “game-changers” more or less do not exist, and there are two more debates to go. With that said, a standard shift of a couple points in the polls could be a big deal in a race separated by a couple points. And there are more votes up for grabs than usual: An unusually large percentage of voters — about 20 per cent in some polls — is still undecided,
How they prepared: Like you’d expect them to: Clinton exhaustively, Trump sporadically.
Clinton cleared much of her late-September schedule to prep at her home in Chappaqua, N.Y., and she devoured briefing books, tested out attack lines, studied Trump’s previous debates, and gamed out her approaches to the “different Trumps that might show up,” in the words of one senior aide. Her campaign even compiled a “personality profile” of Trump. Trump, various reports suggest, has refused even to do a formal mock debate or rehearse at a podium, preferring instead of spitball with allies on plane trips. “I believe you can prep too much for those things. It can be dangerous,” he told the Times.
The expectations game: As always, both candidates have tried to preemptively spin the media. Clinton’s team has warned pundits against grading Trump “on a curve.” Trump’s team has portrayed him as the world’s most clueless debating dilettante, possibly unable to execute even the task of “standing still,” and Clinton a grandmaster. Most of the public isn’t buying it. Thirty-nine per cent think Clinton will do better, 27 per cent think Trump will do better, and 33 per cent don’t know, a YouGov poll found.
Trump’s challenges: When Republican debates delved into policy, Trump often attempted to hide silently in the corner. He won’t have that luxury in a two-candidate debate without commercials.
“He’s shown some evidence of not knowing policy as well as maybe we would like, so they’re going to test him, I think, on that. He’s got to be able to pass those tests,” said Joseph Bafumi, a professor of government at Dartmouth College.
He will have to stay calm in the face of Clinton provocations, avoid accidentally offending any large population group, and avoid being seen to be sexist. Comfortable insulting male rivals, he struggled to navigate his exchanges with the one woman in the Republican field, Carly Fiorina.
“I think the gender dynamic will be something to watch,” Schroeder said.
Clinton’s challenges: She can sound evasive and irritable when pressed about her email scandal, reinforcing concerns about her personality. She can sound inauthentic when she delivers her rehearsed lines. And she will have to adjust on the fly to an opponent who has veered between soft-spoken Teleprompter-reading and threatening to attack her over her husband’s sexual exploits.
“She’s in an incredibly difficult position because her opponent is so unpredictable,” Schroeder said. “She needs to be ready for anything.” Five phrases you will probably hear from Trump: “Believe me,” “Tremendous,” “We don’t win anymore,” “I will fix it,” “What do you have to lose?” Five phrases you will probably hear from Clinton: “Tax returns,” “economy that works for all,” “rise together,” “dangerous,” “Ronald Reagan.”