No challengers as mayor hits midterm
To beat Tory, candidate must bridge downtown-suburbs divide
“I will work with the council that the people of Toronto elected tonight in moving Toronto not left, not right, but forward,” John Tory declared Oct. 27, 2014.
Two years later, halfway through what he hopes will be his first of two terms, it’s easy to find critics of the tax-averse mayor who launches pricey mega-projects unlikely to come to fruition before the next campaign in 2018. It is difficult, though, to name anyone likely to beat him.
“I don’t see anyone at the moment who could challenge Tory — he has found a way to chart the middle ground,” says Adam Vaughan, the Liberal MP and former city councillor whose name arises when politicos talk about potential future mayoral candidates. “In Toronto, to win, to become the mayor, you need to be a centrist.”
Vaughan is focused, as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s parliamentary secretary, on helping deliver a national housing strategy for cities. Attempting a return to Toronto city hall, he says, is “not on my horizon.”
Tory’s team, which celebrated his mid- term mark at a private party Monday, has already started 2018 election planning.
Former councillor Doug Ford, who came second to Tory in 2014, has threatened a rematch from the political right. But Ford, who will soon launch a scoresettling book and publicity tour, is also considering a run at provincial or federal politics.
Organizers from Toronto’s political left say chatter in coffee shops, union halls and councillors’ offices has yielded no obvious 2018 successor to Olivia Chow, the NDP standardbearer who last time finished third to right-leaning Tory.
One NDP activist, who requested anonymity because his employer has not authorized him to speak publicly, agrees that right now there is “nobody.” A “placeholder” candidate could run, keeping the torch lit for 2022 when popular councillors Joe Cressy or Mike Layton might be mayoral contenders.
“But Tory’s not going to get a free ride. He’s ramming through whatever he wants, making deals all over the place, running a very hard-right agenda. It’s frustrating ... and we’ll call him on it.”
Another NDPer says Tory’s “nice guy” appeal masks a lack of vision, making him vulnerable in 2018 to a progressive challenger with “charisma and authenticity.” But nobody knows who that is.
Chow, who recently launched the Institute for Change Leaders at Ryerson University, has “no idea” who could pick up the progressive torch. She isn’t paying close attention to municipal issues, she says, but rhymes off Tory moves she approves — increasing poverty-reduction funding, for example — and others she doesn’t, including pushing a partial privatization of Toronto Hydro.
As for a Chow comeback: “There’s a big smiling grin on my face — no!”
Other names being batted around — with no apparent encouragement or participation from the people themselves — include Peter Sloly, the former deputy police chief now an executive director at Deloitte; chief city planner Jennifer Keesmaat; and former New Democrat MP Peggy Nash. Sloly and Nash didn’t respond to requests for comment. Keesmaat said she has no interest in taking on a political role.
Forum Research polling has Tory’s approval rating in the 70-per-cent range, an enviable score that has bobbed like a helium balloon since 2014. Similar polls for his predecessor Rob Ford started around 60 per cent and dipped, amid scandal, into the low 40s.
Tory was elected thanks to his appeal to a significant number of downtowners and suburbanites. To topple Tory, any challenger must be able to straddle those divides.
Myer Siemiatycki, a Ryerson Uni- versity politics professor, says Tory is succeeding in the eyes of many just by not being Rob Ford.
“He has certainly cooled the temperature and polarization we saw under the previous mayor’s tenure,” Siemiatycki says. “At the same time, he has attempted to play to, and placate, what he regards as the base of support that Rob Ford had” — socially and fiscally conservative suburban voters who drive.
Tory’s allegiance to that voting base has helped keep him popular, but could come back to haunt him. Siemiatycki cites Tory’s refusal to tear down the east Gardiner Expressway in favour of a pricier option and championing a one-stop, $3-billionplus Scarborough subway.
“A bundle of contradictory impulses are playing out,” he says. “His heart and values are in a good place, but there’s a contortion that sometimes go on that leads to policies that go against the city’s best interests.”
Councillor Gord Perks, a leader of council’s left flank who does not plan to run for mayor, says the months ahead — when council wrestles a budget the city manager warns is unsustainable without deep cuts or significant new revenue sources — could set the stage for 2018.
“It’s not about who is mayor,” Perks says. “The conversation in Toronto has to change because we can no longer provide the services Torontonians want and keep taxes low at the same time.
“People have to choose between paying for a good quality of life and keeping taxes low. Somebody, and I hope it will be Mayor John Tory, has to put the question in front of Torontonians.”