Leafs’ best shot at Tavares is in sight
When you observe the starts Steven Stamkos and Jimmy Vesey have had to their respective NHL seasons, it’s easy to project just how much improved the Maple Leafs might have been had they successfully reeled in both as free agents this past summer.
With 11 points in their first 11 games, the Leafs are doing decently with a lineup that included seven rookies Thursday night in Buffalo. Stamkos has seven goals for Tampa already and Vesey has six for the Rangers, and with those two Mike Babcock would have had a more diversified offence.
Being spurned twice wasn’t really a setback for Toronto. It was just a missed chance to jump forward.
The next opportunity now looks like the summer of 2018, when John Tavares of the New York Islanders is slated to become a free agent. But the pressure points will come well before that.
In many ways, this opportunity lines up much better for the Leafs than Stamkos ever did. And while Tavares is saying all the right things about being an Islander for life, he would have to be a masochist to want to stay.
Right now, the Brooklyn-based Isles have fallen behind the Leafs in the Eastern Conference standings, albeit in the very early going.
Unlike Toronto, however, the Islanders are supposed to be a team thinking seriously about post-season success.
GM Garth Snow had a terrible offseason, losing free agents Frans Nielsen (to the Red Wings), Kyle Okposo (to the Sabres) and Matt Martin (to the Leafs). Snow signed 30-year-old free agent Andrew Ladd to the tune of seven years and $38.5 million, and so far Ladd has responded with zero goals and one assist.
Meanwhile, it’s sure starting to look like the Isles may have whiffed on three consecutive drafts in 2012, 2013 and ’14 — drafts that should now be filling the gaps left by departing free agents and surrounding Tavares with new, talented teammates.
Griffin Reinhart (fourth, ’12) was taken ahead of Morgan Rielly, Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba and is already gone from the organization. The Isles picked Michael Dal Colle (fifth, ’14) ahead of William Nylander, Nik Ehlers and Dylan Larkin, and he hasn’t yet made the grade.
The Isles have been patiently building through the draft since Tavares was taken first overall in 2009. Not only may it be leading nowhere, but if Tavares leaves in ’18 they’ll have to start all over again.
Stamkos, as we know, had many reasons to stay in Tampa, including a strong Lightning team, excellent ownership, quality management, an accomplished coach, a generous climate and a quieter existence outside a major media market.
Compare that to Tavares. He’s way underpaid at $5.5 million per season. He’ll play 41home games this year on the worst ice surface in the league at Barclays Center. There seems to be no solution on the horizon for this problem.
The team isn’t close to a Cup and has the worst attendance in the NHL. Majority ownership just shifted from unpredictable Charles Wang to Jon Ledecky, and it’s unclear whether Ledecky will have any more success than Wang, who moved the Isles from the team’s longtime home in Uniondale. We know ownership didn’t shell out the cash to keep those free agents last summer.
Snow has been running the team for a decade and has won one playoff series. Head coach Jack Capuano is in his seventh season, and if he isn’t already in trouble he will be if the Isles aren’t a playoff team next spring.
Brooklyn isn’t warm and sunny and tax-free like Tampa, and while the Isles go relatively ignored in the area compared to the Yankees, Mets, Knicks, Giants and Rangers, they still compete in the intense New York media market.
Why would Tavares want to stay? Loyalty would be one reason, and the chance to be one of those rare athletes to play an entire career with one organization.
“They drafted me there, gave me a great opportunity to play this game that I love and fulfill my dream,” he told Sportsnet’s Andrew Walker in a radio interview last summer. “They’ve put a lot of high expectations into me and I don’t take that lightly. I’d like to see that through and obviously lift the Stanley Cup there.”
If that’s his priority, the Isles may oblige. But as the Predators would tell you with Vesey, words are just words. Tampa could have lost Stamkos for nothing last summer and lived with it, but that would be a nightmare scenario for the Isles with Tavares.
The Isles can look to re-sign Tavares starting July 1, and you have to think he’ll be shooting for the $10.5million cap hit benchmark set by Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews, not the $8.5 million accepted by Stamkos. For the Islanders, starting next season with No. 91 unsigned would be terribly risky business.
Meanwhile, by the summer of ’18, the Leafs will have shaved the contracts of Joffrey Lupul, Stephane Robidas, Brooks Laich, Colin Greening and Milan Michalek off the books. That’s more than $16 million of dead money. Tyler Bozak’s $4.2million annual deal would also have expired.
Rielly, Nazem Kadri and goalie Frederik Andersen are on long-term deals. Nylander will have just finished up his entry-level contract, while Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews will be a year away. This will be a team with a maturing core locked in until 2022 and ready to make a major move, either by trade or through free agency.
The lure of playing at home wasn’t enough to land Stamkos. But by the summer of ’18, the Leafs will have a good deal more to offer any 28-yearold star interested in new beginnings. Damien Cox is the co-host of Prime Time Sports on Sportsnet 590 The FAN. He spent nearly 30 years covering a variety of sports for the Star. His column normally appears Tuesday and Saturday. Follow him @DamoSpin.