Jays, Bautista need a year together
Slugger and team must show they still have value
It seems the Jose Bautista Era will continue in Toronto, for at least one more season.
And as the final details of Bautista’s reported freeagent deal with the Blue Jays are being worked out — a one-year contract with a mutual option for another, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal — fan reaction is split. If the deal is worth as much as $40 million over two seasons, who wins? And can it be argued that both the Jays and Bautista are losers?
Both sides clearly miscalculated the market. An example, the Jays made what turned out to be the best offer to first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion right after the World Series, then backed away from the table and signed the inferior Kendrys Morales. They weren’t around when Encarnacion’s demands came after he explored a disappointing market. His emotions seemed mixed at his Indians introduction.
As for Bautista, maybe he shouldn’t have made a “take-it-or-leave-it” demand last February when Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins brought him in to discuss his future during the NBA all-star week in Toronto. That immediately took him out of consideration as a long-term option for the Jays.
Now, two months after he turned down a $17.2-million qualifying offer for one season, he’s back. Discuss.
Home runs are no longer the big-money magnet they used to be. With analytics taking over in major-league front offices, run prevention and the ability to reach base and produce runs has taken over.
The conclusion? Hitting home runs and stupid free-agent money is all about timing.
Bautista, in November, believed that the body of work of his last seven seasons matched up well with all other free agents and that, the way he took care of himself, he would cash in for four or five years, and at least $25 million per. So he turned down the Jays and his agent, Jay Alou, started making calls.
The Jays felt the qualifying offer was a no-lose situation.
If he accepted, they had a heart-ofthe-order hitter for another year at less than market value.
If he turned them down, which they were sure he would, they would likely end up with a top 60 draft pick in June and they could trade for a younger, left-handed hitting outfielder to balance their batting order.
In hindsight, Bautista always seemed limited in terms of freeagent options. He was on the disabled list twice in 2016 and was held to 116 games and 22 homers, and he hobbled defensively. That created the perception he had to be a DH, eliminating the 15 National League teams. Other teams — like the Orioles, Rangers and Royals — made it personal.
The feeling after 2016 became that he was injury-prone, although most of his recent injuries are of a freaky nature.
The perception was his offensive skills had been diminished by age, although if you watch him play every day, he still has a solid command of the strike zone, draws walks and is respected and feared by opposing pitchers.
He believes one more year may allow him to prove that. Here’s the win/win. If the contract does indeed include a mutual option, Bautista will be able to opt out and once again be able to test the market without the albatross of draft-pick compensation. Assuming a healthy Bautista hits 35 homers and drives in 110 runs, with an OPS around .900, those are the numbers he can sell for a lucrative final deal. His ego can then argue that one year with the Jays just blends into the next three and he will be seen as shrewd and a winner.
Bautista’s return is also important to the Jays, even if just for one season.
He is important to fans and to any consideration of being a true AL contender. The most recent Jays teams, with Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion as important cogs in the middle of the lineup, advanced to the playoffs two years in a row. The Jays sold out 41regular-season home games and all five post-season dates. If the upcoming season heads south by July, fans will be ready to abandon ship if they don’t believe every effort is being made by ownership to reward their loyalty. Bautista gives them a better chance to compete and sell a third contending season.
It only takes a quick look at the roster — without Bautista, Encarnacion and outfielder Michael Saunders, who is headed to Philadelphia — to realize that this team would never have contended with an outfield comprised of Kevin Pillar, Ezequiel Carrera, Melvin Upton, Jr., Dalton Pompey and Steve Pearce. They needed one of Encarnacion or Bautista to return. And after Encarnacion bolted, they need Bautista’s bat. They don’t need him as a leader.
Critics speak about how the Jays, by signing Bautista, lose the compensation draft pick awarded to teams that issue a qualifying offer, that it is a lost draft pick in theory. It was not about to happen. Nobody was beating down the door with multi-year offers for the abovestated reasons. The teams willing to give Joey Bats a one- or two-year deal are traditionally bad teams, ones that draft early in the first round and thus have protected picks. The draft pick they lose would be their second pick.
The Catch-22 for that scenario is that Bautista still wants to play with a contender, so when the A’s, Rays or Phillies came knocking with solid offers, he was not interested. The A’s moved on from Bautista and signed Rajai Davis. The Phillies have reportedly settled on Saunders. The Rays got Colby Rasmus.
As for the wisdom of a Bautista mutual option, in which either side can void the second season, most times somebody opts out. If Bautista was to have a great season, he will opt out. If he suffers injuries and it seems age is catching up with him, the Jays would buy him out. The first year is the only truly important year for Bautista. The second year is face-saving window dressing.
The Jays need 2017 as a buffer. Top outfield prospects Anthony Alford and Harold Ramirez, obtained from the Pirates, are still at least a year away. Cuban prospect Lourdes Gurriel won’t be ready for the majors until early June.
For Bautista, it’s a chance to reestablish his value as a free agent.