Has the Scarborough subway already gone over its budget?
More costs not included in initial funding could put transit project over the $3.56B mark
City officials’ calculations show the planned Scarborough subway extension may already exceed the funds dedicated to pay for it and leave a promised lightrail line completely unfunded.
Anew report released by city staff Tuesday said the one-stop extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway to the Scarborough Town Centre is now estimated to cost $3.35 billion.
But that figure does not include nearly $600 million in additional costs that are detailed in the report but left out of that total.
There is currently $3.56 billion dedicated to transit in Scarborough from three levels of government.
The city’s chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat in conjunction with Mayor John Tory said that by reducing the number of planned subway stops from three to one, a 17-stop LRT from Kennedy Station along Eglinton Ave. E. to the University of Toronto Scarborough campus could be funded within that same $3.56-billion envelope.
At that time, the six-kilometre subway extension was approved by council and estimated to cost $2 billion.
But in just one year, the cost of the subway has ballooned by 67 per cent, leaving the $1.6-billion LRT line Tory and staff promised $1.4 billion short on funding.
Tory said twice this week that more than $200 million is still available for the LRT — or 13 per cent of the total cost — as a “substantial down payment.”
But according to the costs outlined in the staff report, the price tag of the onestop subway extension already exceeds the $3.56 billion available.
The Star confirmed the following numbers with city staff.
The $3.35-billion estimate covers construction of the subway tunnel; new station; associated infrastructure, including a new bus terminal on Triton Rd. at the Scarborough Town Centre; and the decommissioning of the existing Scarborough RT.
The report outlines several additional costs that are not included in that base number.
The additional costs include $14 million for platform edge doors that line up with subway doors at the station — a safety feature that has not been implemented elsewhere in the system but council requested the TTC consider as part of future expansions.
There is also an estimated $11million for public realm improvements like wider sidewalks, plazas and street furniture.
According to consultants hired by the city to review cost estimates, the city should also establish a reserve in case of changes to the scope of the project.
While the city staff report said the TTC believes that $100 million is adequate for that reserve, the consultants recommended that fund be twice as much.
Staff said the city must also build in a contingency for construction cost overruns and costs related to construction schedule delays — estimated, at what staff said are upset limits, of $115 million and $190 million respectively.
The base cost also does not include an estimated $40 million needed for the construction financing model recommended by staff or an additional $15 million required for project advisory fees.
Those additional costs, when you consider the higher-end estimates, total $585 million, putting the cost of the subway at $3.93 billion — leaving the subway $370 million short on funding.
At that cost, the city would not have any funding for the LRT line and would also be short on the cost of the subway extension.
In 2013, council approved a special property tax for the subway to pay for the city’s $910-million share.
On the contingency funds, Councillor Gord Perks said Thursday: “It is a cost and we include it in every project.
“The mayor owes it to Torontonians to come clean.”
Most of the additional costs are not expected to be voted on until staff bring back an updated cost estimate once more design work is completed, which this week’s report said is expected in “late 2018.”
It’s unclear if that update will happen before Tory and council are up for re-election that fall. Staff would not confirm beyond the “late 2018” estimate.
In the report, staff also made a point of noting a large caveat on the $3.35billion estimate. Because so little de- sign work has been done to date, the estimate is only accurate within a very wide range and could be off by up to 50 per cent — what would put the base cost of the subway, without the above costs, at $5.02 billion.
When questioned on the ballooning cost of the subway, Tory said this week there are “hundreds of millions” in savings from possible con- struction and design modifications.
A consultant’s report released Tuesday outlines a menu of possible changes. Though several items have cost savings that are “to be determined,” those that are spelled out total $283 million.
Meaning, even if all those cuts were made, the subway would still be over budget and the LRT would still be completely unfunded.
On Thursday, the Star’s city hall bureau chief David Rider asked Tory about the additional costs and the LRT being unfunded.
Tory responded: “The Eglinton East LRT . . . always counted on the participation of the other governments for a big part of its funding.”
But the other levels of government never contemplated funding the Eglinton East line. Their funding commitments were made in 2013, for a three-stop subway — money both have confirmed remains available for Scarborough transit. Neither government has committed nor signalled a willingness to contribute any additional funds.
“I fully intend to make sure that we build the subway on a cost-effective basis,” Tory said. “And that the result of that . . . is that there will be a substantial down payment left over for the LRT and that the rest of funding to pay for that will come from the other governments and we’re going to get that done too.”