A belief in small reforms

OTTAWA— Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s budget is big on talk and dodgy about timing.

It’s not a useless document. Released Wednesday, the budget signals (again) the federal Liberal government’s economic priorities of trade, training and innovation.

It lays down markers in the areas of health care and child care that, while not always new, are nonetheless welcome.

But in far too many areas, rhetoric threatens to outstrip action.

The promise to provide Canadians with “new and better jobs,” for instance, translates into some new money ($200 million this coming year) and a pledge to renegotiate training programs with the provinces.

A promise to encourage “Canada’s advantage in artificial intelligence” comes with no new money attached at all.

Much is made of encouraging Canada’s farmers and food processors — what the budget calls the agrifood industry. But the most tangible element in this regard is a promise to develop a new policy “framework,” details of which will come later.

In its so-called “gender statement” chapter, the budget correctly notes that the gap between male and female wages in Canada is among the highest in the industrial world.

But at roughly $500 million a year, its proposed remedy — an increase in support for child care and early learning — remains relatively modest and well below what is required to fund a coherent, national daycare program.

The budget calls for an $11-billion national housing strategy to encourage, among other things, affordable housing. But most of the money is slated to be spent years from now, well after the next election.

As the budget itself points out, the government has a mixed record in actually spending the monies it promises for such worthy ventures.

To Morneau’s credit, he has not allowed himself to be swayed by those who economist Paul Krugman calls the “deficit scolds.” The Liberal government appears happy to incur deficits, in the neighbourhood of $20 billion to $30 billion annually, as the price of social spending, for at least five more years.

Still, the political spectre of debt and deficit hangs over this government. Morneau and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau know the public is relatively sanguine these days about Ottawa spending more than it takes in.

But they also know public opinion can quickly change — particularly if voters come to believe that Ottawa is wasting their tax dollars. Which perhaps explains the flat tone of this budget. It is as if Morneau deliberately wants to downplay it.

The document itself is unusually verbose and confusing. Monies promised last year have been reallocated to future years. The focus is on micro rather than macroeconomic solutions to the problems of unemployment and insecure work.

The themes the government wants to promote — innovation and aid to women — sound contrived.

One that does not, however, is Morneau’s apparent faith in the felicity of small reforms — the idea that useful change does not necessarily require vast amounts of money, either in the form of spending or tax cuts.

Indeed, any tax changes proposed in this budget are deliberately downplayed. The public transit tax break will be eliminated. Drinkers will pay higher excise taxes for their alcohol. Non-residents buying certain kinds of holiday tour packages in Canada will no longer be exempted from HST. Smokers will pay a little more.

If the government reckons that this will not spur a national tax revolt, it is probably correct.

If the government reckons that voters will not pay much attention to this budget at all, it is probably correct there, too.