How busy will the Scarborough subway extension be?

Scarborough subway advocates have said the one-stop, 6.2-kilometre subway connecting Kennedy Station to the Scarborough Town Centre will be well-used and among the busiest in the TTC system.

But that ignores the fact the Scarborough extension, estimated to cost at least $3.35 billion, will travel just over six kilometres without stopping — making it the longest single gap between stations in the entire system.

Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker, who was tapped by Mayor John Tory to be chief defender of the subway recently released a petition in support of that plan arguing in part: “Our subway will be busy all day long — busier than almost every station in the entire TTC system.”

De Baeremaeker notes the daily ridership for the extension is projected to be 64,000 (a number city staff projected for 2031).

It’s an estimate that projects the number of people getting on and off at Scarborough Centre station in 2031.

The councillor compares that number to the station usage elsewhere in the system, noting it would have the third-highest usage after Dundas West and Kennedy stations.

When you compare that stretch of tunnel to other six kilometre sections in the existing subway system, the Scarborough subway extension will see by far the least amount of transit users, even less than the five- stop Sheppard subway — Line 4, which runs 5.5 kilometres — which is sometimes called a “white elephant” of transit lines.

The subway will also be below capacity in the rush hour period by 2031, projected to carry just 7,400 people in the busiest hour in the busiest direction.

That is well below the accepted minimum threshold that’s used to justify a subway at 15,000 people and the maximum capacity of 36,000 people. An LRT can carry a maximum 15,000 people an hour — more than twice the number of rush hour riders anticipated for Scarborough.