PANTHERS AT MAPLE LEAFS TV: 7:30 p.m. (TSN4) Kapanen gets the call,
League leaders in key stat measuring puck possession won’t make post-season
The rise of analytics — in particular the statistic known as Corsi, which measures five-on-five shot attempts — owes a great deal to the fact that the best teams by that measure typically make the playoffs.
The NHL even says so in the introduction to what it calls Enhanced Stats and Shot Attempts Percentage Close, another term for Corsi. But not this year. Some of the best Corsi teams are not making the playoffs, starting with the leader: the Los Angeles Kings, who sit at 54.24 per cent. That is to say the Kings, for every 100 shot attempts (including blocks and misses), typically outshoot opponents 54-46. In other words, they carry the play.
The Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning sat second and third heading into Monday night. It’s likely only one of them will reach the post-season — and possibly neither.
The Philadelphia Flyers ranked seventh, with the Carolina Hurricanes ninth, and neither of them look like post-season teams. The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars were also in the top16 Corsi-wise, but won’t make it.
So, is there a problem with the stat? Not necessarily.
For one thing, the teams with bad Corsi are well out of the race. Only the New York Islanders rank in the bottom eight and still have a chance.
“There’s parity that has occurred. There aren’t teams that dominate Corsi like there used to be,” says Rob Vollman, author of the Hockey Abstract. “Teams have caught on to the possession game. They’ve made adjustments.”
Some statisticians would argue that one year is too a small sample size to go by, or an anomaly.
On a team-by-team basis, there are good reasons why Corsi hasn’t translated to a playoff spot. Goaltending is an issue in Carolina and Philadelphia, while Los Angeles has the league’s worst shooting percentage.
Vollman looks to zone starts — teams with good Corsi that start the play most often in the offensive zone — as a better indicator of success.
If that’s the case, the Montreal Canadiens are in trouble. They rank 24th in offensive-zone starts despite being third in the league in Corsi (52.24).
But that’s the next stage in analytics, says Vollman.
“Teams are trying to find the next advantage. There’s a lot to be gained from micro-stats, using camera technology or chip technology or just having scouts with clipboards watching the game and recording events. Additional information — like whether screens are being set up, or plays off the end boards, or zone entries or passes.
“There are 30 or 40 or 50 different things you examine, and somewhere you might find the edge.”
Measuring the value of screening a goalie could go a long way.
“There could be a bunch of players out there who are really good at setting up screens, which could be worth an extra 10 goals a season, but nobody knows who they are because it’s not on the scoresheet and teams aren’t tracking it,” says Vollman. “But if you get two or three of those players, all of a sudden you’ll have a better shooting percentage.”