AS ALL EYES FOCUS ON THE LEAFS
Toronto over Washington in first round?! It will take a lot of luck and imagination. Bruce Arthur ponders the possibilities,
Let’s talk ourselves into this, shall we?
There are three empty days before the Toronto Maple Leafs return to the playoffs, which is good, because the goalie got run on Saturday and two defencemen got hurt on Sunday and by the way, how does a season that is 82 games long end with a back-to-back? That’s some fine scheduling, everyone. Hope the World Cup and the bye weeks were worth it.
But the problem with those extra days of rest is that the Washington Capitals are waiting at the other end of it, and the Washington Capitals are pretty, pretty good. They rolled up 118 points this season. They had the best goal differential in hockey (plus-81; Minnesota was second at plus-58). They scored the thirdmost goals in hockey, and allowed the fewest. They were third in score-adjusted puck possession, controlling 53.01 per cent of the shots for and against when you adjust for the fact that they spent more time leading than any other team.
So, woof. We can keep doing this for three days, if you like.
But we are here to talk ourselves into this! After all, after winning the World Cup in September, coach Mike Babcock ended his press conference by saying, “This is just a sign of what’s going to happen here in Toronto, just so you know.”
OK! Let’s go!
LUCK
PDO measures two things: five-on-five shooting percentage and save percentage. The Capitals led the league, which is not necessarily good, because shooting percentage can be a mirage, and save percentage can come and go. Ask T.J. Oshie, the Capitals forward who scored 33 goals on a league-best 23.1 per cent shooting (career mark: 13.4)! Capitals forward Marcus Johansson was sixth among players who played at least half the season, at 18.6 per cent (career: 13.8).
Brett Connolly was eighth, at 18.5 per cent (career: 11.2). That’s 72 goals! Maybe they go cold, and suddenly the Capitals’ offensive depth is sapped.
Goaltender Braden Holtby is really good, though. Over the last five years among starters, only Carey Price, Sergei Bobrovsky and Tuukka Rask have better save percentages. Holtby was third in even-strength save percentage this year, at .935. Same as Price, for the record. On to . . .
NERVES
The Leafs will probably be overwhelmed by the moment. As Babcock said Sunday night after the Leafs blew a 2-0 lead to Columbus, “We’ve drawn a real good team, and we’re gonna find out what playoff hockey is, and we’re going to find out that it’s way different from reg- ular-season hockey. Might as well figure that out quick. I’ll do my best over the next couple days to explain what’s going to happen, and they’re not going to believe me, and then it’s going to happen.”
But the Capitals have scars, right? Presidents’ Trophy in 2010, lost to Montreal in the first round. Presidents’ Trophy last season, lost in the second round to the Penguins. Since 2008, with Alexander Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom on board, the Capitals have lost in the first round three times, and the second round five times.
But then, Ovechkin has 41goals and 82 points in 84 career playoff games. As Leafs centre Brian Boyle puts it when asked if Ovie is a problem, “Oh god, obviously. That guy, he turns it up, too. The fact that they haven’t won, he really does come to play in the playoffs.”
Ah. Well, what about . . .
CENTRES?
You know who hasn’t produced in the playoffs? Evgeny Kuznetsov, with nine points in 26 career postseason games. Up the middle the Capitals have Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Lars Eller and Jay Beagle, versus Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri, Tyler Bozak and Boyle. That could be a slight edge for Toronto, which has three lines that can score. Centres matter.
Of course, the Capitals’ defence is mobile and deep, with Matt Niska- nen, John Carlson, Kevin Shattenkirk and Dmitry Orlov. Can you expose Brooks Orpik? Karl Alzner? Probably! Of course, at some point the Leafs’ third pair will be defending Ovechkin, too.
The Caps’ wingers are also pretty good. And their special teams. So, we are running out of options. Maybe the Leafs get great goaltending from Frederik Andersen, who might still be hurt? Maybe the Leafs’ kids produce greatness, and their offensive depth wins a game or two? Toronto was sixth in score-adjusted puck possession at 51.29 per cent, per puckon.net.
The Leafs scored seven goals in two games against Holtby this season, on 45 shots! Matt Martin and Freddie Gauthier scored on Holtby this season. This is hockey. Upsets happen.
Look, it’s a little bleak. But look at this way: Back in October when the Leafs were in Chicago, Babcock said, “To be honest with ya, I’m hoping we’re a lot like Chicago was. I think we played them in the Western Conference final in (2009), and they were just starting to pick up speed and they’ve had a real good run and so we’d like to have a real good run, and we got lots of kids, and we’re trying to learn to play just like they were.”
Chicago drafted Jonathan Toews in 2006 and Patrick Kane in 2007. The Blackhawks missed the playoffs in Kane’s rookie year before rocketing to the conference final in 2009 and then winning a Cup in 2010, and 2013 and 2015.
The Leafs are, by this measure, ahead of schedule. Maybe we can talk ourselves into this, no matter what happens.