Patience is key to Canada’s relationship with Trump’s U.S.
Ottawa did the “hurry up” part of this very well, putting its U.S. strategy in place, and now must adjust to the open-ended environment of the second part.
Governments and business expected to see a detailed plan for achieving the president’s priorities. But that’s not how the Trump administration operates. It is in many ways “policy free” and burdened by inexperience, unfilled positions, party disunity, palace intrigue and a disrupter and destabilizer as president. Washington and the country have moved from election through transition to inauguration and now to a state of flux, full of far-reaching uncertainty on key issues.
The recent drama, chaos and failure to repeal Obamacare is a reminder of the 2010 mid-term elections when the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives and John Boehner became speaker. Boehner’s greatest challenge was how to work with his fragmented caucus, not how to deal with the minority Democrats nor the Obama administration. He failed and the business of government continues to deteriorate.
Despite unresolved internal caucus divisions, successor Speaker Paul Ryan forged a clear Republican agenda: Obamacare repeal, tax reform, entitlement changes (Medicare/Medicaid) and deficit reduction, among others, intended to obtain a Republican majority in the 2016 elections, topped off by a post-election Republican president to be instrumental in delivering Ryan’s dream agenda.
But in failing to unite the caucus around the Obamacare issue, Ryan also discovered a president not ideologically wedded to the agenda, nor willing to do the real work to achieve it. In fact, Ryan has no guarantee whatsoever that the core parts of his agenda will ever become law.
President Donald Trump is only one notable player in the governance equation. The squabbling Republican congressional failure on Obamacare has shown the president that he is neither a monarch nor heading a command-andcontrol operation. Nor is he the ideologue or the committed conservative that Republican legislators want in the White House.
The longer Trump is at 40 per cent popularity his impact on Capitol Hill is diminished; members of Congress will not do his bidding on command. Senators elected last November know that they have six uninterrupted years in office — the president has four.
The day after the presidential elections, every member of the House and roughly 30 per cent of the Senate entered the countdown to the November 2018 midterm elections; the mood, agenda, and voting decision of each of these lawmakers are directly affected by a vote barely 18 months away.
Although most Republicans in Congress accept that Trump is not “one of them,” they have gone along with some of his more unusual actions and comments, as long as they thought he could/ would help them accomplish their Republican agenda. But in the aftermath of the Obamacare failure, his ability and commitment to do so are now open to serious question. The president needs a significant legislative victory, soon, to correct his weakened political authority.
President Trump, a wild card, makes congressional Republicans very uneasy. Voters chose a disrupter in the November elections — but they also elected a destabilizer. Barely three months since the inauguration, Republicans wonder how long they can continue to tie their electoral future to this president’s political fortunes.
Canada’s challenge is to be ready for anticipated initiatives on issues of consequence as the administration gears up for action and Republicans try to harness their internal divisions.
Canadian relations with Congress remain a high priority, as do White House and wide-ranging administration contacts. Canadian efforts should be sensitive to the inclinations, pride and political mood of the congressional Republicans and a reinvigorated Democratic minority — let alone the president’s unique personality.
The sky is not falling. But today, examining the daily White House lineup is similar to the West’s Cold War efforts to watch and analyze every political twitch, every shifting of the guard and every photo to determine who was in and who was out at the Kremlin.
It is as worthy an analysis today as it was then. But, in the end, a patient, clearheaded Canadian strategy with interests well-protected will outdo Kremlinology.
The squabbling Republican congressional failure on Obamacare has shown the president that he is neither a monarch nor heading a command-andcontrol operation