COX’S VIEW
Extend or deal James van Riemsdyk? It’s one of many tricky calls looming.
On the day after the air went out of the hockey season in these parts, this much was clear: the Maple Leafs have many pieces of a contending team.
But they’re not yet a contender. In the bluntest terms, they’re one of 22 NHL clubs not good enough to qualify for the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, not yet as good as any of the four Eastern Conference teams still alive.
That said, they have a true No. 1 centre, a potential superstar. One of the best coaches in the business. More organizational stability than this franchise has had in decades.
A very good starting goalie. A functioning farm system that is producing viable NHL players. Committed ownership. An enviable salary cap situation. A scouting staff that seems to be unearthing substantial talent. More young players at the NHL level than almost any other club.
It’s taken a good three years to clear out the junk and deadwood and put all of those critical pieces in place. Now let the building continue.
Progress will be more incremental now, less dramatic than going from 30th to a playoff berth in one big step. That’s where the overall stability of the organization led by Brendan Shanahan, Lou Lamoriello and Mike Babcock helps enormously. These men won’t panic or veer off course.
Even if progress in Toronto isn’t as eye-popping next year, we do know the Leafs are going to play a fast, entertaining style, with creative players like Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner, among others. This team has a personality and a big future. The challenge will be to develop a team that can play all styles, including the NHL’s peculiarly lawless style of playoff competition.
Against Washington, the Leafs were a threat to pull off the upset as long as the games were fairly wide open and unpredictable. That lasted through Game 4, when the Leafs turned from a swashbuckling team into a reckless one and blew a chance to jump ahead 3-1 in the series.
In Game 5, their power play, lethal in the regular season, let them down in a very winnable game. In the final two games combined, the Leafs scored only two goals as Washington slowed the pace, lost any sense of the yips and cut down Toronto’s odd-man chances. Scoring opportunities were sharply reduced for both teams. If you want to believe Washington can win the Cup this spring, you can look to the way Barry Trotz’s group settled itself against the Leafs with its superior size and depth as evidence.
Washington could lose Karl Alzner and be quite happy with Nate Schmidt. In Game 6, they had six D-men skate 17 minutes or more. The Leafs, on the other hand, lost Roman Polak early in the series and by the end had only four defenders they could trust with more than 17 minutes of ice time, none of them known as strong physical defenders.
The thrilling news was that Matthews succeeded just as much in the tighter confines of the playoffs as he did during the regular season. But Marner and Nylander did not, which does not mean they won’t in their next attempt as they continue to mature.
Clearly, as those players grow, the Leafs are going to have to get bigger and deeper as a team, and you’d be foolish to think that will all be accomplished in one summer. Don’t be surprised if the team that begins next season has only two or three changes from the team that was beaten Sunday night. Re-sign Polak and add another experienced rearguard. Find a forward capable of playing in the top nine forwards, and they might already have that player in Kasperi Kapanen.
But blow your brains out on Drew Doughty if the Kings make him available? Questionable and costly, although tempting if the opportunity comes along. They’re going to know by mid-summer, meanwhile, if they have any shot at John Tavares, or whether the Islanders will successfully retain him.
Kevin Shattenkirk as a UFA? Well, he’s already turned down, reports say, contract proposals worth $6 million a season. It seems unlikely the Leafs are going to want to pay him $1 million a season more than Morgan Rielly.
There’s just not much else out there in free agency. That leaves you with trades and talent graduating from the farm. In terms of the Marlies, there are two defencemen, Travis Dermott and Andrew Nielsen, who have a chance. Freddie Gauthier will play fourth-line centre for a lot less than Brian Boyle. Josh Leivo and Nikita Soshnikov are still possibilities, as are farmhands like Kerby Rychel and Brendan Leipsic.
Former Ducks draft pick Miro Aaltonen, 23, has been signed to an entry-level deal. The Finn scored 19 goals in the KHL last season and will compete for an NHL spot.
Trade-wise, with about $16 million (goodbye Messrs. Robidas, Greening, Michalek, Laich) coming off the books, the Leafs have more room than some teams, and many of those teams (Dallas, L.A., Tampa) will be looking to adjust their rosters. But with new contracts for Matthews et al coming in the next few years, the Leafs have to be mindful of committing to expensive, long-term deals. So you might anticipate adding one significant contract, but not more than that.
Would, for example, the Leafs take a run at 34-year-old Ilya Kovalchuk as a possible linemate for Matthews if Kovalchuk is serious about coming back to the NHL after scoring 32 goals for St. Petersburg last year?
A final decision will also have to be made on whether to extend James van Riemsdyk or move him. JVR, despite his size, was only intermittently effective against the Caps and was pointless in Games 5 and 6. Basically, he’s a small skilled player trapped in a big man’s body.
Edmonton, it’s worth noting, not only made the playoffs for the first time since ’06 but knocked off San Jose, the defending Western Conference champs, principally by adding heft and muscle in Milan Lucic, Adam Larsson and Patrick Maroon. Those players added balance to the lineup, the same process the Leafs are looking at now.
The foundation is there in Toronto and the organization is stable and resourceful. This off-season could be as fascinating as this season was surprising. These are exciting times, folks. Damien Cox is the co-host of Prime Time Sports on Sportsnet 590 The FAN. He spent nearly 30 years covering sports for the Star. Follow him @DamoSpin. His column appears Tuesday and Saturday.