Better bench might tip scales in series
The NBA Eastern Conference semifinal series between the Raptors and Cavaliers opens on Monday night at Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, a rematch of last year’s conference final — which the Cavs won in six games on the way to the title. Here’s a look at some key factors for both teams, and how we think it will turn out in the end:
THE RAPTORS WILL WIN IF THEY …
GUARD THE ARC The Cavaliers were second in the league in team three-point field goal percentage in the regular season and second in three-point attempts. The Raptors haven’t been the greatest at guarding the three-point line, but if they can get the multiple efforts they need — protecting the paint on LeBron James and Kyrie Irving drives, while recovering to contest shots — it could be a series changer. If the likes of J.R. Smith or Kyle Korver go off and make multiple threes, it’s going to be difficult for the Raptors to win. It’s simplistic to say Toronto needs to move the ball side-to-side to create easy looks on the weak side. Everyone knows it. It’s the same for just about every team in the league and has been vital to Toronto’s success this year. Quick, decisive ball movement won’t allow the Cavaliers — and James in particular, since he defends as something like a free safety just roving around — to lock in and take first options away. The Raptors have proven they know how to do it, and if they do they’ll run up scary scoring totals against a suspect defence. It’s likely that DeMar DeRozan, who has been as consistently good in the post-season as he’s ever been, and Kyle Lowry, who had a good but not great series against Milwaukee, will get theirs. They are just that good, and back-court defence is not a Cavaliers strength. But it’s the Raptors who have to put up some numbers.
They need to take pressure off the guards and keep the Cavs honest. Having Norm Powell coming off the bench again should juice the scoring, but Patrick Patterson has to make some three-pointers while shooting without hesitation. Jonas Valanciunas, who was coming back from injury last year, has to be productive, too.
THE CAVS WILL WIN IF THEY …
LeBron is a wonder, no question about it. To couch it in football terms: he’s got the size of a tight end, the speed of a running back and the awareness of the best quarterback in the game. He can, simply, do it all. When things get tough for the Cavaliers, he just takes over, bulling his way to the basket, picking apart defences with the “zing” passes that are always on time and on target. If he dominates four games and is making three-pointers, that’s basically going to mean four wins and another trip to the conference final for Cleveland. Kevin Love is a sneaky good offensive rebounder, and Tristan Thompson is one of the best in the game at finding cracks in the defence to get extra possessions for the Cavaliers. Every extra shot puts more pressure on Toronto’s defence. They will have to contend with the size advantage enjoyed by Valanciunas and Serge Ibaka — and Cleveland doesn’t lose too much on the boards when they go to a small lineup — but winning the rebounding battle is going to be a key for them. Korver has killed the Raptors repeatedly in the past, Channing Frye was a nightmare in last year’s series and Deron Williams is an offensive upgrade from Matthew Dellavedova as the backup point guard. The Cavaliers are certainly going to depend heavily on James and Irving, but they have managed to add key, dangerous pieces coming off the bench. If the backups can even have one significant game each, it’s going to make it easier for Cleveland to win the series.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN?
First off, disregard their regularseason meetings entirely. The first three games were played before the Raptors added Ibaka and P.J. Tucker, and the last one was the final game of the regular season, memorable only because Valanciunas made a three-pointer. There is no doubt the Raptors are better equipped to play the Cavaliers with the two additions up front, and they won’t go into this series as worn out or overwhelmed as they were a season ago. But Cleveland is Cleveland, and an appearance in the NBA final seems to be a birthright for James. So, LeBron.
Cleveland in seven