Exports may double in spite of trade threats

Report forecasts growth, concludes markets are strong enough to defy Trump factor

OTTAWA— Canada’s export bank is doubling its growth forecast this year, a sign it doesn’t expect U.S. President Donald Trump to upend globalization of trade. Export Development Canada (EDC), in its spring 2017 report Tuesday, forecast the total value of Canadian goods and service exports to rise 6 per cent in 2017 and 5 per cent in 2018, buoyed by energy and aerospace. Shipments of metals and ores are also expected to rise significantly. The federal corporation’s previous report, released last fall, forecast 3 per cent export growth for the current year.

The report, titled, “Globalization at the Brink?” is a nod to the headwinds Canada faces from Trump, amid looming renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement and disputes over lumber and dairy rules. However, it concludes strength from the U.S., Europe and in developing markets creates an opening for exporters willing to shrug off the Trump factor.

“The opportunity for our companies is to stay around the table while everyone else is running scared,” Peter Hall, EDC vice-president and chief economist, said in an interview.

In the U.S., positive signs include key demographic groups re-entering the labour force as industrial capacity tightens, while growth is catching on, too, in Europe.

“We’re not going to counsel Canadian firms to do crazy things, but we’ve had no reason to really depart from the story we’ve been telling,” Hall said. “We are a financial institution saying, ‘Look, there are opportunities here.’ ”

Canada’s expected export growth in 2017 will be driven largely by an 18-per-cent increase in the value of energy exports, in part due to a return to normal volumes after wildfires near Alberta’s oilsands last year, the report said.

The 2018 increase is due in large part to aerospace — namely, Bombardier Inc.’s C Series airplane, Hall said. The program has received cash injections from both the Quebec and Canadian governments and is now the subject of an anti-dumping allegation from Boeing Co.