FINAL FORCE
Conn Smythe front-runner Erik Karlsson and the surprising Senators might be out of their league against mighty Pens.
The Ottawa Senators were supposed to be easy pickings, gone in the first round. The Nashville Predators had the 16th-best record of the 16 teams that made the Stanley Cup playoffs. Welcome to parity, NHL style. The conference finals are about to begin with two teams that have Cups to their names — the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins and 2007 champion Anaheim Ducks — facing teams that were way down anyone’s list as potential contenders — the Sens and Preds. “It’s a game of small details and small moments,” Predators defenceman Mattias Ekholm told the Nashville Tennessean. “The difference between No. 1 and No. 16 is not that big, as the case may be in other sports. That’s what’s so exciting about hockey, too. Anyone can win.” Maple Leafs watchers can find intrigue in the Pens-Sens series, with best buddies Phil Kessel (Penguins) and Dion Phaneuf (Senators) facing each other. Or they can tune in to watch former Leafs coach Randy Carlyle juggle lines in Anaheim. Here’s a deeper look at the matchups, with the Predators and Ducks opening the best-of-seven Western final in Anaheim on Friday (CBC, 9 p.m.) followed by the Senators and Penguins in Pittsburgh for Game 1 of the Eastern final on Saturday (CBC, 7 p.m.):
OTTAWA SENATORS VS. PITTSBURGH PENGUINS Season series: Senators 2-1-0
KEY FOR THE SENATORS
Erik Karlsson: The splendid Swede could well add the Conn Smythe Trophy to his resume when the playoffs are done, having been involved in just about every big goal the Senators have scored in the post-season. . . . The supporting cast has been effective: Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Bobby Ryan in particular, but Dion Phaneuf, Clarke MacArthur and Kyle Turris as well. . . . Trade-deadline additions Viktor Stalberg and Alexandre Burrows have come up big in key moments. . . . Craig Anderson can go toe-to-toe with any goalie, which will
be important because the Senators (2.83 goals per game) don’t have the offensive weaponry to get into a shootout with the Penguins (3.42). . . . Ottawa has been slightly better on faceoffs (52.3 per cent to Pittsburgh’s 51.7). . . . Ottawa’s possession rate at even strength, when the game is tied or when it’s close is more than 50 per cent, which bodes well.
KEY FOR THE PENGUINS
Offence: The Penguins have four of the top six playoff scorers: Evgeni Malkin (18 points), Jake Guentzel (14), Sidney Crosby (14) and Phil Kessel (13). It’s doubtful that they’ll stop pouring pucks at the net. . . . It’s important for the Penguins to score a lot, because their defence is suspect. When the Capitals were successful against them, they were able to poke holes through Pittsburgh’s injuryriddled blue line. . . . The Penguins are tops in blocked shots among the four remaining teams with 250. . . . Goalie Matt Murray is healthy after a lowerbody injury and ready to step in should unsung hero Marc-Andre Fleury stumble. . . . The Penguins’ possession numbers are laughably weak for a team that has made it this far: 42.14 per cent overall, 37.33 per cent when tied, 42.04 per cent when the score is close. With an incredibly high 12.3 shooting percentage, though, it hasn’t mattered.
PICK: Penguins in five
ANAHEIM DUCKS VS. NASHVILLE PREDATORS Season series: Ducks 2-1-0
KEY FOR THE DUCKS
Randy Carlyle: The coach has taken a fair bit of heat, but his frequent ingame line juggling keeps the opposition on edge, making it harder to match up. . . . It helps that the Ducks are deep offensively with Ryan Getzlaf (eight goals, seven assists) leading the way. . . . Youngster Nick Ritchie has emerged as an important piece, along with Rickard Rakell, as the Ducks blend the young with the old, reminiscent of how a young Getzlaf-Corey Perry combo performed in the club’s 2007 Cup win. . . . The Ducks won 57 per cent of their faceoffs against Edmonton. . . . The Ducks power play (13.9 per cent) is the worst among the four surviving teams, with a paltry five goals through two rounds. . . . The Ducks have allowed three goals a game and goalie John Gibson’s goals-against average of 2.88 is no match for Pekka Rinne’s league-best 1.37 in the Nashville net.
KEY FOR THE PREDATORS
De-fence: Not the “stand at the blue line” kind, although the Predators are good at that. It’s the “offence from defence” kind. The Preds are really good at that. Ryan Ellis (nine points) and Roman Josi (eight) are second and third behind Karlsson in scoring by defencemen in the playoffs, while P.K. Subban is right there with seven points. ... Rinne’s .951 save percentage is far and away the best of the remaining goalies, especially important because Anaheim’s 53.5 shot attempts per game are far more than Nashville has been seeing (45.5 per game). . . . Nashville’s power play is clicking at a solid 20 per cent and the penalty kill is at 87.5 per cent, best among the remaining clubs.
EDGE: Predators in seven