Uncertainty expected at G7, NATO summits

Outcomes hard to predict as U.S. president meets with Trudeau, other leaders

OTTAWA— Prime Minister Justin Trudeau heads to Europe this week for the NATO and G7 summits, where global leaders are trying to figure out exactly how the world works now that U.S. President Donald Trump is at the table.

The future of military alliances, the fight against climate change and even free trade all hang in the balance as the new man in the White House sits down and lets them all know his plans — or maybe not.

“Predicting what this president does would be virtually impossible,” said David Perry, a senior analyst with the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“Fireworks would be the baseline expectation of some sort.”

On Thursday, Trump will sit down with Trudeau and other leaders at the NATO summit at the group’s new headquarters in Brussels.

Allen Sens, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, said the meeting comes at a time when NATO was already dealing with competing interests.

The southern flank of NATO wants to focus on security in North Africa and the Middle East. Eastern European partners are concerned with Russian aggression.

There are also concerns around Turkey and Russia’s relationship. Brexit, too, brings uncertainty to the dynamics.

“It’s being pulled in various different directions, by often competing geopolitical forces, and at this very delicate moment, the United States — a key partner in the alliance — is led by the Trump administration with its established record of volatility, uncertainty and impulsiveness,” Sens said.

Meanwhile, the elephant outside the room is the explosive allegations of close ties between the White House and Russia.

There are efforts underway to minimize the impact for some of that infamous Trump unpredictability, with foreign delegations at both the NATO and the G7 summits being advised it would be in their best interests if everyone kept presentations short and to the point.