For Canada, 2017 is remarkably similar to 1867
When John A. Macdonald became the first prime minister of Canada on July 1, 1867, he faced challenges that were remarkably similar to those encountered by Justin Trudeau today. Then and now, Canadians experienced fallout from a divided, indeed dysfunctional, United States.
Turmoil from the American Civil War, from 1861 to 1865, drove Canadian politicians to found a new federal state that would unite the diverse provinces of British North America. Not on speaking terms for years, in 1864 Macdonald, a Conservative, and Liberal George Brown, overcame their differences to become key members of a Great Coalition government in the Province of Canada, which included present day Ontario and Quebec. Together with French Canadian George-Étienne Cartier, their mission was to create a new country within the British Empire. Macdonald emerged as the master craftsman in the construction of Confederation. (Later, his Anglo-Saxon prejudices against the Métis and indigenous peoples made Canada’s acquisition of the West a deeply flawed exercise.)
In 2017, a titanic societal struggle is underway inside the American Republic, between what we can call a “New America” based mainly in burgeoning multiracial cities and an “Old America” centred in the South, the Midwest and in small towns and rural areas. With Donald Trump in the White House, Old America has come to power in all three branches of the American government. The overriding theme of the Trump administration is “America First.”
In the last days of the Civil War, the U.S. Congress abrogated the free trade (reciprocity) deal that had been in force between the British North American provinces and the United States since the mid 1850s. American politicians, furious at Britain for its neutrality during the war, and for allowing warships to be built in Britain for the Confederate South, tore up the deal. They also claimed that British North America had benefitted at the expense of Americans from free trade.
In recent months, Trump has denounced NAFTA, the free trade deal that has been in force among the United States, Canada and Mexico since 1994, as the worst trade deal ever signed by the U.S. Trump’s trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer, has triggered the 90-day consultation period so that the formal renegotiation of NAFTA will begin in mid August.
The president has vowed that NAFTA must undergo “massive” changes so it can better serve American interests. As far as Canada is concerned, Washington will demand adjustments to trade regimes for softwood lumber, dairy products, the automotive industry and pharmaceuticals, as well as to the mechanism for resolving trade disputes.
When Canadian Confederation came into effect150 years ago, the new country had already been locked out of free trade with the United States. The years that followed were a time of economic stagnation on both sides of the border. In the 1870s, both North America and Europe endured a long-term depression and Canadian efforts to re-establish free trade with the U.S. failed.
Then in 1878, John A. Macdonald proposed a new idea. He called for the National Policy, which would mount higher tariffs against American imports so firms could launch manufacturing establishments in Canada to serve the domestic market. Along with tariffs, there was to be the completion of the transcontinental Canadian railway and governmentsponsored immigration. By the mid 1890s, the National Policy system’s elements had fused to create a highly prosperous Canada with a growing economy and population. Canada remained a great exporting nation with Britain as its leading market.
Today, next door to a protectionist America, the pressure is on to hone a Canadian strategy to create new and sustainable industries appropriate to worldwide efforts to halt climate change. Exports will still matter hugely, but this time we are likely to look west to Asia as our alternative to diminished prospects to the south.
When the fireworks light up the skies on July 1, 2017, we may well ask whether in Justin Trudeau we have a leader as astute as our first prime minister in steering us through a difficult time in relations with our southern neighbour.