New leader will feel anything but blue
Membership, fundraising numbers show Conservative movement is doing well
Conservative party faithful from across the country will gather in Etobicoke this weekend to replace the only leader the modern party has ever known, and to take stock in the strength of their movement.
And by most measures, that movement is doing just fine.
The Conservative party out-fundraised the Liberals by almost a twoto-one margin in the early months of 2017, raising $5.3 million from more than 42,000 donors. This is despite an ongoing leadership contest that was expected to suck money away from the party in favour of particular candidates. Their membership rolls have grown from roughly 90,000 people in late 2016 to more than 250,000 in April — more than the party even hoped for in the lead-up to their failed 2015 electoral campaign.
And whoever wins the leadership on Saturday will start Day One with control over one of the most sophisticated electoral machines Canada has ever seen: a motivated base of volunteers and grassroots activities, a serious approach to data-driven campaigning, and a pool of experienced former cabinet ministers to keep Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s feet to the fire in Ottawa.
Not to suggest the new leader won’t have challenges. The Liberals routinely poll above 40 per cent, and a poll from Léger this week puts the Conservatives under 20 per cent in Quebec, a crucial province.
But Conservative strategist Jason Lietaer said the new leader has a pretty good head start.
“Usually when you take over a party it’s debt-ridden, it’s on the down slide, its prospects are weak, its support is weak,” said Lietaer, who has worked with Conservative governments in Queen’s Park and Ottawa.
“By comparison, the (Conservative) party is in much, much better shape. And the key there, I think, the foundation, the fundamentals, when you’ve a good caucus and good fundraising, you’ve got a pretty solid base to build on.” Quebec MP Maxime Bernier is widely perceived to be the candidate to beat on Saturday, holding a commanding lead in polls of Conservative members since television personality Kevin O’Leary dropped out of the race.
With a field of 14 candidates — O’Leary is still on the ballot, having quit after the party’s deadline — and the party’s unpredictable voting system, however, it would still be bold to make predictions.
The Conservative leadership ballot is ranked, and members can rank their preferences one through 10, or simply select one candidate for their vote. The Conservatives also give each riding equal say in who leads the party — so a riding in Calgary with thousands of Conservative members has the same weight as a riding in Montreal with 10.
Former Speaker of the House of Commons Andrew Scheer and former veterans minister Erin O’Toole are thought to have the best shot at upsetting Bernier, but again, the complexity of the voting system and the number of candidates makes the outcome difficult to predict.
The party has also committed to releasing detailed, riding-by-riding breakdowns of the voting, allowing for a close analysis of members’ desires for the future of the party.
For Rachel Curran, a former policy director in Stephen Harper’s PMO, the leadership contest has provided two clear paths: slight tweaks to Harper’s policies and approach — continuity candidates like Scheer or O’Toole — or significantly different policies offered by candidates like Bernier.
Curran, who recently wrote a comprehensive account of the policy choices facing the next leader in Policy Options, said that the “continuity” choice may be more challenging for the Conservative party than a fresher break.
“The successful candidate isn’t going to be successful in a national context, in the context of a national election, simply by putting together the same coalition that Harper put together in 2011,” Curran said in an interview Thursday.
“Our demographics are shifting, population centres are shifting. I don’t think simply trying to put those same pieces together, and having someone different try (to) put those same pieces together, it isn’t going to be sufficient to win a national election.”
With the party receiving a significant number of mail-in ballots, the leadership contest may already be over by the time Conservative members gather on Friday. The new leader won’t address members until Saturday night, after the final count is known.
Whoever it is will inherit a party that is ready to fight in 2019. Conservatives in Etobicoke this weekend will get a taste of what that leader intends to do with it.
Whoever wins the leadership on Saturday will control one of the most sophisticated electoral machines Canada has ever seen