Bernier supporters confident of victory heading into vote,
With 126,000 mail-in ballots, it is a large possibility Quebec MP has already won
It’s very likely there already is a new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada — they just don’t know it yet.
About 2,000 Conservatives have gathered at a conference centre near Pearson Airport to select their next party leader. But with 126,000 mailin ballots received by the party as of Friday morning, it’s unlikely Saturday’s in-person voting will have much of an impact on the final outcome.
That perhaps explains the fairly relaxed atmosphere at the Toronto Congress Centre, where party faithful slowly trickled in Friday to hear last-ditch appeals from the 13 people hoping to replace Stephen Harper. None of the backroom manoeuvring or mass migrations of delegates from one camp to another that characterized leadership contests of old. Just like-minded Conservatives paying to attend what one insider called a “reveal,” not a contest.
The consensus in the convention hall is that Quebec MP Maxime Bernier is the man to beat, a self-styled libertarian who out-fundraised the rest of the field, but Saskatchewan’s Andrew Scheer and Ontario’s Erin O’Toole at least have a path to victory.
Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research, said Bernier entered the race as a complete long shot, but managed to sustain momentum through the marathon race.
“But all the candidates we’ve seen evolve,” Maggi said in an interview Friday afternoon.
“Maxime Bernier is going to win. He’s at 31 per cent (according to Mainstreet’s polling of Conservative members) of the vote. When you translate that to votes . . . there’s 17,000 members total in Quebec, 78 ridings with 7,800 points. There’s 22,000 members in Calgary, nine ridings, worth 900 points. That’s why Bernier is going to win.”
Scheer’s team was quietly telling reporters Friday, however, that they’re projecting their candidate is only a few points behind Bernier, and have more support in Quebec than has been reported publicly. That could just be last minute spin, but if true would make Saturday’s big reveal a lot more interesting.
Speaking with the Star on Friday, Scheer said he was both nervously excited and cautiously optimistic heading into the convention.
“I’m talking tonight about how we need a leader who can take the best of our Conservative principles and policies and connect them with a broader audience of Canadians,” Scheer said.
“We need a leader that doesn’t just speak to a subset of conservatives, but can take that message out and grow our support.”
Despite the significant number of advance voting, O’Toole said “it’s not over until every person has cast a ballot.”
“We are running this marathon until we hit the tape,” O’Toole told the Star.
“I need more members of the party to see what our caucus has seen. My experience and my style will win back parts of the country that voted for us in 2011 but left us in 2015.”
Despite the consensus favourites, other candidates were not laying down on Friday. Supporters for Ontario MPs Michael Chong and Lisa Raitt paraded around the convention hall Friday evening, chanting their candidates’ names and waving placards.
As Chong supporters chanted, one non-supporter started yelling “carbon tax, carbon tax,” in reference to the former cabinet minister’s plan for a revenue-neutral tax on carbon — something that gone over like a lead balloon with the sections of the party’s base.
The leadership candidates were scheduled to give their 11th-hour appeals to delegates still on the fence at the main convention hall Friday night, before the traditional mixing, mingling and drinking at hospitality suites Friday night.
On Saturday, members will have their last opportunity to vote at the convention hall before a new leader is announced — expected around 7 p.m. Saturday.