How hard will Trudeau push to get a pipeline built in B.C.?
Justin Trudeau clearly has the constitutional right to push forward on a major pipeline expansion on the British Columbia coast.
The Constitution is one thing. Politics is another.
We may yet see how much political capital the prime minister is willing to spend in proceeding with his approval of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain expansion that would transport bitumen from Alberta to tankers in Burnaby.
He would have to buck the opposition of British Columbia’s soon-tobe-installed NDP government, backed by the Green party, and there would be major ramifications for the federal Liberals’ climate change bona fides, their pledge of Indigenous reconciliation, the future of Trudeau ally Rachel Notley in Alberta, even the future of the federal NDP.
It’s hard to see Trudeau going to the ramparts to support a pipeline that faces opposition from a B.C. NDP premier, John Horgan, and a number of Indigenous communities.
His constitutional power has been rarely used in modern history and would likely play poorly in Quebec where another pipeline faces wide opposition.
It would do severe damage to his political brand.
This week’s announcement that the NDP-Green alliance will use “every tool available” to stop the Kinder Morgan expansion has ratcheted up tension between British Columbia and Alberta and will embolden opponents of the plan.
The $7.4-billion project would triple the capacity of the existing line and would increase tanker traffic on the coast sevenfold.
Notley needs an international market for Alberta bitumen.
Horgan and Green party leader Andrew Weaver need to “defend their coast.’’
In the May 9 election in British Columbia, confirmed by late-month recounts, some 57 per cent of voters cast a ballot for change, leaving Liberal Christy Clark heading to a confidence vote in the legislature she is certain to lose.
Voter motivation is always worthy of debate, in this case the motivation of the 40.28 per cent who cast ballots for the NDP and the 16.84 per cent who voted for the Greens.
Voters cast their ballots for parties offering a suite of policies and feder- ally, there has already been debate about whether voters gave Trudeau a mandate to pull jets out of the fight against Daesh or how many voted for electoral reform.
But there are clues in British Columbia. In ridings that would feel the potential impact of the Kinder Morgan expansion, voters overwhelmingly went to the NDP.
Trudeau’s “social licence” now comes with voting data. So, what’s in Horgan’s tool box? It will likely include, at very least, a new provincial environmental assessment. Opponents feel the National Energy Board report on the project was deficient.
It could mean delaying or withholding a number of provincial permits the company still requires. Horgan and Weaver can demand Kinder Morgan fulfil all 37 conditions appended to Clark’s certificate of approval.
There are also 19 legal challenges to the expansion. The new government could choose not to defend one of them brought by a B.C. First Nations community.
“The province has the right, some would say obligation, to protect, assess and regulate any interprovincial pipelines,’’ said Chris Tollefson, a law professor at the University of Victoria.
“It is certainly entitled to protect its interests.’’
Horgan could essentially run out the clock, making the provincial approval so time consuming and onerous that Kinder Morgan might find the expansion no longer worth its while.
Further complicating Trudeau’s support, the NDP-Green partnership agreement says a “foundational piece” of their relationship is support for the adoption of the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.
Whether or not this would mean Indigenous vetoes over such projects, this government-in-waiting has clearly signalled Indigenous communities will have more power over the fate of future projects.
Trudeau risks B.C. Liberal seats in the next election if he muscles Kinder Morgan through.
Also at risk is an understanding between Trudeau and Notley in which Trudeau promised a pipeline approval in return for Notley’s environmental initiatives.
Indeed, if Kinder Morgan is blocked, Notley’s own political future becomes murkier.
This internecine NDP battle in the West also has huge ramifications in the federal leadership race. Essentially, the candidates will have to become Horgan New Democrats or Notley New Democrats. Most are leaning toward Horgan. The others will find they cannot equivocate. The fragility of this B.C. agreement means it is always in danger of collapse.
But if it holds, we are about to see how a provincial vote can lead to political dominoes falling across the country. Tim Harper writes on national affairs. tjharper77@gmail.com, Twitter: @nutgraf1