MAYDAY! MAYDAY!
British PM’s disastrous election gamble has triggered a political earthquake. Few of us will escape the damage
Conservative bosses envisioned a Thatcher-like landslide with the Tories ruling for a generation. It didn’t quite work out that way
LONDON— The aftershocks from Britain’s stunning election result are only beginning to be felt — in the U.K., the rest of Europe and the United States — but they will be far-reaching.
A humiliated Theresa May, clinging to her job as prime minister in a weak minority government, will likely be forced to resign by her Conservative party within months, triggering another election within a year.
A chastened British government, up to now determined to steam ahead with potentially disastrous Brexit negotiations with Europe, will be forced to reassess. And an isolated Donald Trump, already alienated from most leaders in Europe except for May, is certain to see his planned state visit to Britain this summer delayed and ultimately cancelled.
It was one of the most surprising upsets in U.K. political history — a rebuke of May and an astonishing outcome for her left-wing Labour party rival, Jeremy Corbyn.
A year after their astonishing referendum to leave the European Union, British voters set off another political earthquake with an election result that might even place the future of Brexit in doubt.
It was the fourth vote in four years for the British, and one that needn’t have happened. The voters hit back. May was selected by her party last year to replace David Cameron as prime minister after the unexpected Brexit vote. But she repeatedly promised there would no election again until the next scheduled vote in 2020.
However, the polls in April showed the Conservatives 20 points ahead of the fractured Labour party led by Corbyn. And the temptation to call a sudden election, it seems, was too great.
Conservative bosses imagined a scenario whereby May emerged from this election with a landslide victory — as a 21st century Margaret Thatcher ushering in a generation of Tory rule.
But it backfired in a colossal way. Voters didn’t share their enthusiasm. In terms of seats and popular vote, the Conservative lead over Labour was cut in half.
On Friday May turned to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which won just 10 seats, to back a tenuous minority government. That party — which is proBrexit but wants to maintain an open border with the Republic of Ireland — did not immediately commit to a formal coalition and will likely seek concessions from May, or whoever replaces her as Conservative leader in the months to come.
“I certainly think that there will be contact made over the weekend but I think it is too soon to talk about what we’re going to do,” DUP Leader Arlene Foster told The Associated Press Friday, adding that it would be “difficult” for May to keep her job.
In her first campaign as party leader, May faltered badly.
Her biggest stumble was around the release of the Conservative party manifesto.
It included a scheme that suggested some senior citizens would have to pay for a portion of their social care, which critics called a “dementia tax.”
After several days of ridicule, she announced it would be ditched as a pledge but the outrage among elderly voters continued.
For the Conservative side, this was an uninspiring campaign, rocked by two terrorist incidents in three weeks that killed 29 people.
It revealed the prime minister to be a weak campaigner who refused to debate her rivals and never appeared to connect with voters.
More ominously, it reflected in stark terms a population still divided about the United Kingdom’s perilous road ahead.
There were at least three lessons from this campaign that shocked Britain’s political establishment: 1. Crowds matter, and so do young voters
Not unlike U.S. politician Bernie Sanders during last year’s presidential campaign, Corbyn brought his upbeat, populist, anti-austerity message to enormous crowds every day, many of them filled with young and passionate supporters. The enthusiasm of young voters for Corbyn was one of the major breakthroughs in this campaign. Voter registration for young people was at an all-time high and it seems they turned out. 2. Brexit is not yet a done deal
Nigel Farage, one of the leaders of the Brexit campaign that won last June’s referendum, said he believed that Brexit “is in some trouble now. We may very well be looking down the barrel of a second referendum.” He thought that talks may be de- layed, and indicated he may re-enter politics because of this. 3. Even in Britain, Donald Trump is toxic
Many Britons were outraged after Trump criticized London’s popular Muslim mayor, Sadiq Khan, over his handling of the London Bridge terrorist attack. Trump distorted remarks made by Khan and never apologized. The incident added to the growing public feeling that May’s invitation to the U.S. president for a state dinner should be cancelled.
In this new era of Trump, the global political landscape is changing — both in Britain and in the rest of Europe.
In France this weekend, newly elected President Emmanuel Macron is facing crucial parliamentary elections. But his popularity seems to be soaring in the wake of his rebuke of Trump over the issues of climate change and NATO.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also facing re-election and she, too, is benefiting politically by trying to detach Europe from the wrecking machine that Trump’s administration in Washington has turned into.
In terms of potential allies, these European leaders had written off May and Britain in light of the Brexit vote last year, and May’s apparent connection with Trump.
But Thursday’s U.K. election result was a reminder to them and to the rest of us that nothing in this crazy 21st century world should be taken for granted. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.