What happens in the Optimizer . . .
Josh Leivo, enjoy Las Vegas.
That’s the conclusion from a team of University of Toronto engineers who have put together an interactive online tool called the NHL Expansion Draft Optimizer, clickable at nhlexpansiondraft.com.
“It’s a decision-support tool to evaluate what-if scenarios,” said Timothy Chan, the professor who led the university group specializing in operations research. “If I think a team cares about on-ice performance rather than financial flexibility, this tool maximizes that goal.”
The team drew information from multiple sources — salaries from capfriendly.com, analytical statistics like point shares from the Hockey Abstract and player ratings from NHL EA17 — and lumped them together with rosters from the NHL and the rules about expansion. With the press of a button — “Optimize” — a full roster for the Vegas Golden Knights appears.
“The optimizer will optimize all 30 teams, and deter- mine how they can minimize the value they expose to Vegas, say, in terms of point shares,” Chan said. “And contrastingly, how Vegas can maximize the total number of point shares by the 30 players they take.”
That leads to choices like Leivo and Chicago defenceman Trevor van Riemsdyk, whose name has been bandied about in trade rumours.
And to a selection like Pittsburgh blueliner Olli Maatta, a surprise over goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who has been asked to waive his no-movement clause. In reality, Vegas may already have a deal in place to select Fleury and trade him to Calgary, his most likely landing spot.
The default setting figures all 31 teams care more about on-ice performance than salary-cap wiggle room in terms of protection and drafting. But users can adapt the scale for each team, making either money or ability more important, although if you go too far toward creating salary cap room, players like Leaf defenceman Morgan Rielly become available.
Users are also free to create their own protected and exposed lists. Capfriendly, by the way, has a similar mode. And for those that remember General Fanager, it had the first expansion draft tool. The site was shut down when the Golden Knights hired its creator, Tom Poraszka, to help it with the draft.
It’s no easy task. According to Chan, there are more than 1 200 (10 to the power of 200) total expansion draft possibilities. That’s10 with199 zeroes behind it. That’s more than the number of atoms in the universe (1 80).
The optimizer can’t project all the behind-the-scene moves that are already beginning to be played out.
The Anaheim Ducks, for example, may have a pre-arranged deal in order to keep forward Jakob Silvferberg or a young defenceman like Josh Manson, one of whom will likely be left unprotected.
The Ottawa Senators received word that defenceman Dion Phaneuf is unlikely to waive his nomovement deal, meaning they might lose Marc Methot or Cody Ceci.
Minnesota and Columbus are in similar tight spots with young players vulnerable to exposure because of expensive and past-their-prime veterans with no-movement clauses requiring protection.
“A ton is going to change between now and the expansion draft,” Chan said. “There will be side deals that won’t get announced until later.”
Vegas chooses its team on June 21, as part of the NHL Awards broadcast. The show will be held in the T-Mobile Arena, the home of the NHL’s newest team.
Players with three or fewer years as a pro in North America — like the Leafs’ Auston Matthews and William Nylander — are exempt from the draft. And players with longterm injuries, such as Nathan Horton and Joffrey Lupul, are ineligible for the draft.
The Golden Knights need to take 30 players — one from each team — whose total salaries equal 60 per cent of the 2017-18 salary cap, which is yet to be announced, but believed to be between $73 million and $75 million (U.S.).
As for the Leafs, the University of Toronto optimizer suggests the local team will protect four forwards, four defencemen and a goalie. That diverges from what most believe is the more likely route: keepingˆ 0 seven forwards, three defencemen and one goalie.
Under the 4-4-1 arrangement, the projectedˆ protected 0 Leafs were: Frederik Andersen, James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, Connor Brown, Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Connor Carrick and, oddly enough, Alexey Marchenko. That left the likes of Leo Komarov and Matt Martin exposed, with the computer still picking Leivo, a gifted goal scorer but a suspect skater.
With the 7-3-1 route, the protected players were Andersen, van Riemsdyk, Kadri, Bozak, Brown, Komarov, Martin, Rielly, Gardiner and one of Carrick or Martin Marincin. In such a scenario, the optimizer takes Marchenko.
But the optimizer, obviously, hasn’t seen Marchenko play.