No room for error in second half
At this stage of the Major League Baseball season, headed into the final 74 games, the Blue Jays are not likely to make it onto their third straight postseason dance floor — but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible. A 10-game win streak would come in handy. Here’s a look at ways the season could turn for manager John Gibbons:
THE GOOD
Remember the righteous indignation at spring training when Sports Illustrated ranked the Blue Jays’ starting rotation No. 16 in the major leagues? Well, those same starters are going to have to be lights out in the second half to even be worthy of that middle-of-the-pack rating.
The Jays rotation has a combined 23-35 record with a 4.74 ERA in 475 innings, averaging just 51⁄ per outing.
3 The win total ranks 14th in the AL, while the starting corps is 10th in ERA, 13th in innings and 13th in opponents batting average at .272. Injuries and a lack of minor-league depth have certainly entered the equation, but the starters need to be better.
The only way to post a necessary 10-game win streak — twice through the rotation — is for Aaron Sanchez to be healthy and efficient with his two-seam fastball.
The defending AL ERA champ needs to stay away from further finger woes and carry most of his 15 possible assignments through seven innings.
In addition, right-hander Marco Estrada, who claims he feels better physically than he has in years, must overcome what seem to be mental issues in terms of staying away from the one big inning per game that has been destroying his season. At Yankee Stadium his last time out, Estrada showed signs of returning to the big-game pitcher he had been the past two seasons, but needs to get over that hump.
Marcus Stroman has been as advertised in terms of being the Jays’ best starter, but he needs to continue to go deeper than just six innings, which he has certainly been doing lately, inspired by his critics. He was hurt by the fact that his fellow players and the MLB powers that be didn’t include him in the all-star game.
Since his return from an elbow injury, J.A. Happ has answered questions about his health by throwing 100-plus quality pitches per outing. He needs to keep that going. Fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano must be consistent with what can be dominating stuff.
If all that good happens and the starting five return to the kind of numbers that led the league in 2016, then the Jays will be competitive in every game with a chance to win. Right now, they have an abominable minus-64 differential in runs.
The bullpen has a chance to be very good in the second half with the return to health of Joe Smith, and the return of Joe Biagini from the starting rotation to a role that he embraced in 2016. With those two in setup roles, it allows Ryan Tepera and Danny Barnes to pitch a little earlier in the game and gives the ’pen some solid depth. The lefthanded relief specialist role could be upgraded.
THE BAD
At its best in the second half of 2015 and much of 2016, the Blue Jays’ lineup was relentless one through nine. Currently, the lineup has little balance, no speed and is lucky to have had the all-star performance of Justin Smoak to lead the way. If no one else steps up to help, the season will be lost.
Without the injured Devon Travis, the second-base platoon of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney is batting a combined .215. The four catchers who have had an opportunity to back up Russell Martin went 15-for-142 (.106). The left-field position with Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera has produced mediocre offence and shabby defence.
There has been talk of an upgrade at the top of the order. Second baseman Dee Gordon from the Marlins is a long shot, but a player such as Rajai Davis from the A’s would make more sense.
The Blue Jays have had a neverending series of injuries in 2017, some of them credited to the convenience of the new 10-day disabled list, but to think that there will be no more in the second half is unrealistic. The lack of depth at the upper levels of the farm system will hurt.
THE UGLY
The only trades the Jays might make to help the team right now involve left field and second base. It’s possible, if the Jays stumble badly out of the second-half gate, that GM Ross Atkins might make some moves to help in 2018 while temporarily weakening the current roster. Players who might be traded if the rest of July is a losing one for the Jays include setup man Smith, starting pitchers Liriano and Estrada, and left fielder Pearce.
If any or all of those trades are made at the deadline, this could be a 70-win season. At that point, would Josh Donaldson, a free agent following the 2018 season, ask for an offseason trade to a contender? It will get uglier if casual fans who have made Rogers Centre a rollicking place abandon ship.