CONTENDERS HUNGRY FOR RELIEF SHOULD TALK TO THE HAND
Padres all-star stands out with trade deadline fast approaching, but price tag’s sky high and there’s more help out there
Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline has recently had a theme. In 2015, ace starters David Price, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels all changed teams before July 31. A year later, star relievers were all the rage, with Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Mark Melancon finding new homes.
Pitching again dominates the stage this season. The Chicago Cubs showed they aren’t ready to yield the National League Central to the Milwaukee Brewers after adding starter Jose Quintana in a deal with the Chicago White Sox, and the Washington Nationals began a bullpen upgrade by acquiring relievers Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle from the Oakland A’s.
But there is one reliever on a noncontending team who could change the complexion of any bullpen: Brad Hand of the San Diego Padres. The 27-year-old left-hander increased his strikeout rate year over year (from 30.5 to 31.6 per cent) while decreasing his walk rate (from 9.9 to 7.1 per cent) resulting in a corresponding drop in ERA (from 2.92 to 2.20). He’s pitched 49 innings of relief this season, holding opponents to a .589 OPS against, the fourth-lowest among relievers pitching at least as many innings this season.
He won’t come cheap. ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted the Padres want something “similar to what the Phillies got for Ken Giles.” Philadelphia received five players from the Houston Astros for Giles, including 23year-old flamethrower Vince Velasquez and Mark Appel, the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft. Perhaps Hand isn’t worth that price to a team contending for a World Series title. If not, here are five other names to consider as the trade deadline approaches.
ZACH BRITTON
LH, Baltimore Orioles Last season, Britton was nearly unhittable. The left-handed closer allowed a .162 average against with 74 strikeouts in 67 innings, allowing 31 fewer runs than expected after accounting for runners on base and outs left in the inning — making him the most valuable reliever in 2016. He isn’t as spectacular this season, allowing just 3.5 runs fewer than expected, but he induces a large number of ground balls (68 per cent of balls put in play) and can keep the ball in the yard — through Friday, his last home run allowed was to Mookie Betts in April 2016, and the one before that was in September 2015.
SONNY GRAY
RH, Oakland A’s The quintessential ace, Gray is striking out more batters this season (22.7 per cent) than he has since 2013, his first year in the majors, despite losing velocity on his fastball since then. Relying on a combination of fastballs, breaking balls and off- speed pitches to keep hitters off balance, Gray’s 3.66 ERA is higher than his 3.36 FIP, which measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing. In other words, there might be room to improve after the trade deadline. According to FanGraphs depth chart projections, no available starter is expected to provide more wins above replacement than Gray (1.2 fWAR) for the remainder of the season.
ALEX AVILA
C/1B, Detroit Tigers Avila is having the best season of his nine-year career. The 30-year-old is batting .286 with 11 home runs and a .932 OPS, creating runs at a rate that is 49 per cent higher than the league average after accounting for league and park effects (149 wRC+). His plate discipline is much better — he is swinging at a career-low 12.8 per cent of pitches out of the zone — and his quality of contact is on the rise, with more than half of his hits classified as “hard hit” by Baseball Info Solutions. His average exit velocity has also improved to 92.3 m.p.h., up from 90.4 mph in 2015.
JUSTIN UPTON
OF, Detroit Tigers An all-star for the fourth time this season, Upton is batting .273 with a .852 OPS, creating runs at a rate that is 28 per cent higher than the league average after accounting for league and park effects (128 wRC+), the 18th-highest rate among 63 outfielders who qualify for the batting title. Rest-of-season projections see Upton finishing the year hitting .264 with 13 home runs and a .832 OPS, producing an additional 1.3 wins above replacement. He’s also valuable in the field.
JARROD DYSON
OF, Seattle Mariners Dyson is batting .243 with five home runs and 22 stolen bases with 12 defensive runs saved in the field, making him the 20th most-valuable outfielder in the majors this season (2.0 fWAR). His role as a table-setter is also solid — the 32-year-old lefthanded hitter has an OPS that is 68 per cent higher than the league average when leading off an inning with just eight strikeouts. Only Anthony Rendon and Melky Cabrera have struck out less often with a higher OPS at the start of an inning.