THE FIELD FOR THE SHIELD
The odds suggest TFC will finish with the best record in Major League Soccer,
The Major League Soccer season may be winding down, but to Toronto FC captain Michael Bradley that means the pressure is ramping up. “We continue to focus on this idea that, as the end of the year comes, every game takes on added importance,” Bradley said last week, before his team beat fellow Eastern Conference contenders Chicago Fire on their turf Saturday night. “The tempo and the intensity of games starts to pick up and that’s exciting.” The Reds are in first place in the conference with nine games to play before the regular season wraps up Oct. 22. New York City FC, which beat New England 2-1 on Sunday, is four points back in second. Chicago is nine points back in third. In a league that values parity above all, there is still much soccer to be played. But on paper, the Supporters’ Shield for the league’s best regularseason team seems to be Toronto’s to lose. A look at the stretch run for the East’s top teams, with probabilities courtesy of fivethirtyeight.com:
TORONTO FC
Probability of making playoffs: 99 per cent First-round bye: 96 per cent Supporters’ Shield: 82 per cent The Reds will meet just two teams currently above the playoff line: the fourth-place New York Red Bulls and the No. 6 Montreal Impact, who they will face three times. And five of Toronto’s remaining games will be played at BMO Field, where the team is unbeaten. But Toronto has struggled against the bottom teams; more than half of the 25 points it has dropped this season have come against clubs that wouldn’t make the post-season if the year ended today. The wild card in Toronto’s remaining schedule will be Montreal, with the first of their three meetings coming Sunday at Stade Saputo. The Impact have won four straight and would love to spoil their rivals’ party. If the Reds continue to stretch their lead, they might look at resting some of their stars ahead of the post-season. They’re mostly healthy now, with defender Nick Hagglund (MCL sprain) and midfielder Benoit Cheyrou (calf tear) the exceptions.
NEW YORK CITY FC
Probability of making playoffs: 98 per cent First-round bye: 48 per cent Supporters’ Shield: 9 per cent The toughest final stretch of the season goes to New York City FC, which has the fewest games at home (four) while facing seven playoffbound squads. A consolation for NYCFC is a run of four games against West opponents. While that conference has historically been considered the stronger division, the East has ruled this year, with a 40-28-25 record over the West. The battle for second place, and a first-round bye come playoff time, could come down to a late September match in Chicago, where the Fire are 10-1-1.
CHICAGO FIRE
Probability of making playoffs: 95 per cent First-round bye: 20 per cent Supporters’ Shield: 2 per cent If Bastien Schweinsteiger and his teammates hope to leapfrog New York and capitalize on any stumbles by Toronto, they will need to improve on a 2-7-4 road record. The Fire need to get healthy, and quick. Defender Brandon Vincent and defensive-minded midfielders Matt Polster and Joao Meira were all unavailable against TFC over the weekend, forcing Chicago to deploy Schweinsteiger on defence. That is not a move they can afford to make consistently. The German playmaker is tied for second on them the team in assists and his pedigree will draw at least one defender, if not more, when Chicago presses forward. Having Schweinsteger as part of the attack is the Fire’s best chance at getting Nemanja Nikolic back on track. The 29-year-old striker had 16 goals in Chicago’s first 18 matches, but has gone scoreless in the last seven.