Indians and Astros built for deep runs
The American League dance card for the month of October is complete, after the Yankees beat the Minnesota Twins in the wild-card game Tuesday night.
The Indians made it to Game 7 of the World Series last year before losing to the Cubs, so they are considered favourites to get there again, but it was only a late-season surge that pushed them ahead of the Astros, who were consistent all season. The Indians will have AL home field through the ALCS.
The East was the AL’s best overall division at 20 games above .500, but that’s not always an indicator of strength when you get to a short series. The Indians have not won since 1948. The Astros have never won. Play Ball!
INDIANS (102-60) VS. YANKEES (91-71; 1-0)
Starters: The Indians roared past the Astros in the final two months, going 42-8 from Aug. 11 to secure the best record in the AL. And they relied on their starting pitching. Cleveland’s top four in August and September: Corey Kluber 10-1, 1.42 ERA; Carlos Carrasco 8-2, 2.82; Trevor Bauer 8-1, 2.57 and Mike Clevinger 7-2, 2.23.
The Yankees rotation seems to be held together with bailing wire, with the youngest and healthiest of the group, Luis Severino, imploding in the pressure of the wild-card game and lasting less than an inning. The good news is he can come back sooner against the Indians. The bad news, do you want him to? The Yankees rely on right-handers Masahiro Tanaka and Sonny Gray and lefties CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery. Kluber being able to pitch twice, in Games 2-5, is a plus for Cleveland.
Edge: Indians
Bullpen: The Yankees added power arms to an already loaded bullpen at the trade deadline.
In addition to closer Aroldis Chapman, setup man Dellin Betances and Chad Green, they now have Dave Robertson and Tommy Kahnle. The unpredictable Betances may have advanced to the back of that line. The Indians have a deep bullpen and the special post-season weapon that is left-hander Andrew Miller. The list of setup men for closer Cody Allen includes Bryan Shaw and former Jays reliever Joe Smith. Edge: Indians.
á Lineup: Unlike Yankees playoff teams of the past, this year’s Bronx Bombers are led by the youngsters, right-fielder Aaron Judge, catcher Gary Sanchez, shortstop Didi Gregorius and centre-fielder Aaron Hicks. While Judge is the most feared single hitter in the series, the Indians have a relentless, balanced lineup of players that can beat you with balls up the alley and out of the park — third baseman Jose Ramirez, shortstop Francisco Lindor, right-fielder Jay Bruce and the Blue Jays’ contribution to the cause, first baseman Edwin Encarnacion, who bounced back in the second half to post typical EE power numbers. Edge: Indians
á Intangibles: Cleveland has an edge in the dugout with manager Terry Francona over Yankees skipper Joe Girardi. The Indians are like the Royals between 2014-15 in that they lost one year and have swagger the next. Edge: Indians á Pick: Indians in four. HOUSTON ASTROS (101-61) VS. BOSTON RED SOX (93-69) á Starters: The Red Sox must be concerned about defending Cy Young winner Rick Porcello’s diminished season, left-hander Chris Sale’s off September, lefty Drew Pomeranz’s loss of velocity down the stretch and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez’s inconsistency. They limped into the playoffs, losing three of four games in series against Houston, and play the Astros again now. The Astros traded in August for righthander Justin Verlander, who has been rejuvenated and almost perfect. He can pitch two games and Dallas Keuchel can go once, but that leaves the 3-M question of Charlie Morton, Collin McHugh and Lance McCullers: Which two of those three will get the call. Edge: Astros
á Bullpen: The Sox have a strongarmed pen led by closer Craig Kimbrel and supported by right-handers Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly and Heath Hembree. They will begin by counting on lefty David Price to be this year’s Andrew Miller. The Astros bullpen relied on a rebound by closer Ken Giles, with righties Chris Devenski, Luke Gregerson and Michael Feliz setting things up. The Sox need their starters to go deep into games in order to get Kimbrel involved. Edge: Red Sox
á Lineup: The Red Sox have a great core of youngsters in the first year of the post-David Ortiz era. They rely on outfielders Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi, and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Leadership is provided by second baseman Dustin Pedroia, first baseman Mitch Moreland and DH Hanley Ramirez. The Astros had key injuries to shortstop Carlos Correa and centre-fielder George Springer, yet they continued to win because of the steady contributions of MVP candidate Jose Altuve. Both teams are capable of producing big run totals. Edge: Astros á Intangibles: The Astros are on the cutting edge of all things analytics, while Red Sox manager John Farrell has been oft-criticized for his ingame decisions. Edge: Astros á Pick: Astros in five.