THE SPANISH DISPOSITION

Why Catalonia’s push for secession is Europe’s nightmare.

Will Spain’s most explosive crisis in a generation turn even more violent and become a nightmare for all of Europe? That possibility is now becoming real as a toxic mix of unbridled nationalism and incompetent politicians takes hold of that country’s future.

At issue is the apparent determination of the separatist government of Catalonia, one of Spain’s wealthiest regions, to declare unilateral independence. Its leaders claim this will happen in a matter of days even though Spain’s national government and its courts declare this would be illegal.

If undeterred, this will be a historic collision between two extreme and stubborn sides that is certain to end badly. We saw a preview of that last Sunday as Catalonia held a banned referendum on independence amid horrific scenes of police violence.

The Spanish government did its best to block the voting, and its brutal efforts were dramatically captured on television. There were scenes of Spanish police smashing their way into polling stations, dragging out voters, firing rubber bullets into crowds and beating pro-independence demonstrators. More than 900 people were injured.

But still, the Catalan government claimed, somewhat incredibly, that it received a clear mandate for its region to secede. According to official figures, 2.26 million people voted, a turnout of 43 per cent of eligible voters, with 90 per cent supporting independence.

Although Catalonia’s story is rich and distinct, with a history dating back nearly 1,000 years, its present-day drama is unfolding in a 21st-century Europe that is already fragmented and under siege.

Whether ethnic or religious, the reawakening of identity in this globalized world is rocking the traditional institutions of state. As this develops, populism and nationalism are increasingly filling the void for the many people who feel excluded.

In Europe, these aftershocks were evident in the Brexit vote last year in the U.K., the Scottish referendum in 2014, the rise of the far right in elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands this year, and the emergence of anti-immigrant governments in Poland and Hungary.

It is because of this European context that the clash between the leaders of Spain and Catalonia is so dangerous.

Catalonia is one of Spain’s most prosperous regions with a distinct language, history and culture. Until Francisco Franco’s dictatorship from 1939-75, Catalonia experienced broad autonomy within Spain but Franco suppressed that. After he died, the region was once again granted some autonomy.

But Catalans have long complained that Madrid was siphoning their wealth, and contributing little back to Catalonia. They wanted more autonomy and were granted that in 2006. But four years later, Spain’s Constitutional Court reversed much of that. Its action angered many Catalans and support for outright independence shot up.

Catalonia’s separatist party won power in 2015 and promised to hold an independence referendum. This vote finally occurred last Sunday even though the Spanish government had declared it illegal.

Most opinion polls suggest that a majority of Catalans would still prefer to remain as part of Spain but with increased autonomy. Pro-independence support peaked at 49 per cent in a poll in 2013, but has dropped since then. A poll last July suggested that 49 per cent of Catalans were opposed to independence, with 41per cent in favour.

Ultimately, what may help the cause for Catalan independence is the ineptness of its adversary. The Spanish government, led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, has resisted all calls for negotiation. For its part, the Catalan side claims it is open to mediation. But Madrid inflamed Catalans with its brutal handling of Sunday’s vote.

If the Catalan government goes ahead with a unilateral declaration of independence, there aren’t many options for the Spanish government. The most likely is that the prime minister would invoke Article 155 of the constitution that would effectively mean that Madrid would rule Catalonia. Catalonia’s autonomy would be suspended and its political leaders likely arrested.

An irony of this drama is that not only does Spain have a lot to lose in this crisis, but so does Europe as a whole. However, the European Union is wary about interfering in the internal affairs of its member states and has so far been on the sidelines.

This will need to change if a disaster is to be avoided. The obvious way out for Spain and Catalonia is negotiation and, ultimately, enhanced autonomy for the region.

The only question is how do they get from here to there, without blowing up their country. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.