‘Puzzling’ Toronto real estate market frustrates price fix

Report suggests factors other than high demand driving prices up, leaving few options to ease crisis

OTTAWA— Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has been under pressure to rein in runaway home prices, but a study by the national housing agency suggests the PM will struggle to exert control over the real-estate market in Canada’s largest city.

Conventional economic factors including population, incomes and borrowing costs accounted for less than half of the 40-per-cent surge in Toronto home prices between 2010 and 2016, according to a Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. (CMHC) study obtained by Bloomberg through a freedom of information request.

“No one simple measure emerges as an obvious candidate for addressing the challenges posed by high-priced markets.” CMHC REPORT

Supply constraints, and to a lesser extent speculation and investment, accounted for most of the rest of the gains, although a lack of high-quality data about the availability of land made firm conclusions hard to draw.

The report details the “puzzling” dynamics of the Toronto market and suggests factors other than demand are driving prices higher, leaving Trudeau few options to ease the affordability crisis. It may also mean more needs to be done to promote supply and curb speculation, issues more readily dealt with at the municipal level.

“While price increases in Vancouver have largely been supported by economic fundamentals, a more puzzling result points to the state of the Toronto market, where fundamentals haven’t been as strong,” CMHC analysts said in the 134-page study prepared for Families Minister Jean-Yves Duclos.

Duclos commissioned the review in June 2016 and has sought further updates for a final version expected soon that will help shape a new national housing strategy, his spokesperson Mathieu Filion said by email.

“This is an important report as Minister Duclos has said on many occasions that we are missing important data on housing and all good policies need to be developed with valid data,” Filion said. Trudeau, who has repeatedly pointed to an affordability crisis in Toronto and Vancouver, gave Duclos marching orders to look into how to fix the problem. The minister’s role will include “undertaking a review of escalating home prices in highpriced housing markets and considering all policy tools that could keep home ownership within reach for more Canadians,” according to Duclos’ mandate letter from the PM.

The report backs up Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz’s view that interest rates aren’t the best tool for dealing with potential housing bubbles. CMHC found about threequarters of Vancouver’s price gains were tied to fundamentals, versus 40 per cent in Toronto, suggesting the latter city is an isolated trouble spot, another argument against using monetary policy, which has widespread effects, to bring prices down.

Wealth and income inequality are likely important drivers for the large price moves in higher-priced detached homes, the report said, because industries that cluster in big cities and offer high-paying jobs can feed the prices for the more expensive properties.

The supply side also offered important clues. The stock of housing in Toronto and Vancouver was much less responsive, or what economists call elastic, to rising prices, the report said. “Supply challenges including land supply and zoning regulation emerge as factors that contribute particularly to high priced markets.’’

“Supply challenges including land supply and zoning regulation emerge as factors that contribute particularly to high-priced markets.’’ CMHC REPORT

There are also few signs that builders are in a genuine struggle to keep pace with rising demand, which would typically lead to a surge in provincial construction wage rates.

Another possible driver of rising single-family home prices may be that geographical constraints have driven up land prices, encouraging builders to switch development to higher-density options.

CMHC cautioned against making firm conclusions in some of these areas because of a lack of reliable data around trends such as foreign ownership. Most of the report’s conclusions and recommendations were redacted under provisions in the access to information law that exempts advice to ministers. However, the end result is that governments are left with uncomfortable choices, the agency found.

The early draft sent to Duclos in December was released for an academic peer review that’s still underway, CMHC spokesperson Jonathan Rotondo said by phone.