Ten international headlines you’ll read in 2018
Hallelujah, we survived 2017 without blowing up the planet. Who would have thought? Let’s all take a bow, but only a quick one.
It may be simply because those in charge of the nuclear codes in Washington and North Korea ended their schooling at Grade 3 and couldn’t quite read the manuals. But if we are doomed to have another nail-biting year in 2018 — and we are — we begin it with one glorious advantage: We know what will happen. Here, in one snappy package, is a confidential peek at the Top Ten in- ternational headlines of 2018.
1. America’s constitutional crisis
Donald Trump cannot allow special counsel Robert Mueller to complete his investigation into Trump’s political and business empire. He is certain to try to end it, even if it triggers a constitutional crisis. The reason is that Trump has always known what Mueller surely now knows: that Trump is guilty of a wide assortment of crimes, including obstruction of justice. As his justification, Trump will take the cue from his apologists in the media, such as Fox News, which has been attacking Mueller’s probe as “A Coup in America.”
2. The Democrats roar back
In the year ahead, Trump and the Republican party will have more than Mueller to contend with. All signs point to the likelihood of a Democratic “wave” this November in the Congressional midterm elections. Democrats are wellpositioned to win the House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate. This will create havoc with the remainder of Trump’s term, and will make the possibility of impeachment very real.
3. Conflict with North Korea
This is the year when nuclear brinkmanship will become dangerous. There will be some sort of military conflict over North Korea; the question is whether it can be contained. The regime there is certain to resume nuclear testing soon, perhaps including a thermonuclear test in the atmosphere. Sen. Lindsey Graham, after spending several hours with Trump, estimated that in such a case, the odds are 70 per cent that the U.S. would conduct a pre-emptive strike on North Korea.
The potential for catastrophe is limitless.
4. China makes its move
The growing dominance of China will be one of the most enduring legacies of 2018. Ironically, Trump’s “America First” policy is having a boomerang effect by making “China First.” China will soon become the country with the biggest economy and the largest population. As Europe and North America remain distracted by Trump’s brand of disruptive politics, and America’s traditional allies in Asia feel abandoned by Washington, China is moving in to fill the vacuum.
5. British government collapses
The besieged Conservative government of Theresa May will fall apart within a year. Since its narrow victory in Britain’s 2017 election, May’s government has struggled with the implications of the earlier vote to exit the European Union. The enormous costs of Brexit are becoming better known, and recent polls indicate that many Britons regret their vote. This will raise the once astonishing prospect of Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming the U.K.’s prime minister and — equally surprising — it will increase the odds there will eventually be a second referendum on Brexit.
6. Europe is back on its feet
Europe will be buoyed by an economic upswing and political renewal. And in 2018, it will be France’s Emmanuel Macron — not Germany’s Angela Merkel — at the head of the pack. As Germany’s chancellor struggles to form a government, the French president is riding high. Within France itself, his popularity is soaring, having rebounded from a summer slump. His increase in approval was described by pollsters as “unprecedented” for a French president. And in Europe as a whole, Macron is being seen as the only leader now speaking for traditional European values.
7. Assault on free expression
This will be the year when the assault on free speech will reach levels unprecedented in our lifetimes. Emboldened by a U.S. president who cites “fake news” whenever his lies are challenged, the forces that want to limit free expression for political reasons are in the ascendancy throughout the world. Studies show that freedom of the press has fallen to its lowest level in at least a decade. And the expression “fake news” is now being uttered by dictators far and wide as journalists are silenced and killed.
8. Countdown to war in Iran
At the urging of Saudi Arabia and Israel — two arch rivals of Iran — the American march to a disastrous war on Iran will accelerate. It is not enough for Iran to be “in compliance” with the historic 2016 nuclear agreement, as it clearly is, according to the UN. In the American media, Iran is being demonized and the “case” against it is being fabricated. This is a familiar playbook, since we saw it all in the months leading up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
9. No hope for Kushner plan
The so-called Kushner Middle East “peace plan” will go nowhere. For months now, Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, has been the president’s handpicked envoy to craft Israeli-Palestinian peace. Early reports suggested it was heavily favoured toward the Israelis, rejecting most Palestinian claims. Few observers gave the plan much of a chance, but Trump’s announcement that the U.S. is moving its embassy to Jerusalem has ended any hope the proposed plan will succeed. Given that, it may never even be made public.
10. A resurgent Palestinian cause
Trump’s decision regarding Jerusalem — by granting Israel what it wanted — was intended as a blow against the Palestinians. And it succeeded in that. As an American betrayal, it was unprecedented and brutal — and the floundering Palestinian leadership was damaged. But in the days since that decision, the tide seems to be turning in their favour. Once again, incredibly, the Palestinian “cause” is regarded as a priority for much of the Arab world. And now, with this new lease on life, the pressure in the coming year will intensify on the Palestinians to get rid of their old, corrupt and inept leadership, which has held them back.
My track record
A year ago, I made 10 predictions for 2017 and — drum roll please! — it appears that I got nine right, more or less. (Yes, I too was gobsmacked at that.)
I credit this to a rigorous process — visionary in its concept and daunting in its execution — involving a red blindfold and a cork dart board, capped off in a final anxious tiebreaker by a dramatic flip-of-a-coin.
My “mostly right” category included predictions that Trump’s presidency will implode, Iran’s nuclear deal will survive, Russia’s Putin will gain dominance, Europe’s far right will increase in electoral support, Turkey will edge closer to dictatorship and the nuclear threat involving North Korea will grow.
My one prediction that I concede was “mostly wrong” was that America will risk war with China — but, ominously, the conditions for that to happen are still there. What a buoyant holiday note to end on! Happy New Year. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.