Stars aligned for legitimate Cup shot
The hardest part is over. Now, it’s about positioning. About moving up.
That’s not to say the Maple Leafs have already guaranteed themselves a playoff berth. We’re not even yet at the halfway point of the 2017-18 campaign, a season already chock full of surprises. Like Las Vegas. Like the troubles in Ottawa. Like Josh Bailey near the top of the scoring race, Brock Boeser burning up B.C., Andrei Vasilevskiy taking a run at the Vezina and Mikhail Sergachev having more points and more gamewinners than Jonathan Drouin.
That also suggests there could be lots of surprises to come. And sure, that could include a lousy January-April segment by the Leafs that could drop them out of playoff contention. It’s certainly possible.
We know the Leafs did the “18wheeler going right off a cliff” during the Brian Burke years. So nothing is guaranteed at this point. Not for the Leafs, not for the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins, not for the Nashville Predators, winners of the Western Conference last year. Certainly not for the Winnipeg Jets, who now have to survive as long as two months without ace centre Mark Scheifele.
All that said, the Leafs are in very good shape. And let’s agree it would take a stunning collapse, probably fuelled by major injuries to key players, to keep them out of the Stanley Cup playoffs at this point. They have a healthy lead over teams like Montreal, Florida and Detroit to finish in the top three in the Atlantic Division, which means they likely won’t have to scratch and claw just to achieve a wild-card berth.
That, in itself, is a significant improvement from last year.
By the time the Leafs go into Vegas Sunday night for a showdown with the shockingly successful Golden Knights, meanwhile, they’ll have played 39 games, more than half the league. Of those, 23 have been on the road, and the Vegas game will end a period in which Mike Babcock’s team has played 14 out of 18 on the road, including a pair of challenging trips west and four back-toback propositions.
By comparison to that harsh schedule, the 42 games that remain after the Leafs return from Sin City — 24 of them at the Air Canada Centre — look like a light jog on a warm, breezy day.
A .688 winning percentage at home suggests there is still a chance for the Leafs to take a hard run at first-place Tampa, with the two clubs set to meet Tuesday at the ACC. That begins a run of six straight at home and includes — saints be praised — an actual Saturday night home game, something that used to be a very regular staple of Toronto’s NHL schedule.
The Leafs have already survived the absence of their best player, Auston Matthews, for 10 games, not to mention goal-scoring slumps from fellow sophomores Mitch Marner and William Nylander, and right now they are surviving the injury loss of defender Nikita Zaitsev, arguably the best rearguard on the squad. You certainly no longer hear complaints that his $4.5-mil- lion per season, multi-year contract was a mistake.
These hardly add up to a calamity, but they’ve been issues to overcome, and probably reasons why — apart from a 6-1 start to the season and six consecutive wins a month after that — few would suggest Toronto has played spectacular hockey this season. Then again, standards have certainly been raised in the Matthews Era, haven’t they?
The Leafs are top five on offence and on the power play, in the bottom half on defence, and average at killing penalties. Only two clubs — Anaheim and Florida — give up more shots and the Leafs have been a middling possession team. They lost nine overtime games last year after leading games through two periods, and haven’t lost any in that way this year. That’s an area of significant improvement.
Overall, given those numbers and the lopsided road/home games ratio, you’d have to say the Leafs belong about where they are in the standings, and in fact they’ve probably played better than they’re getting credit for.
Beyond that, it also seems clear this club is going to improve by adding talent before the NHL trade deadline.
Last year, they brought in Brian Boyle, who was helpful, along with spare parts Eric Fehr and Alexey Marchenko. They tried to acquire centre Val Filppula, but he wouldn’t agree to come to Toronto.
But those were moves made by a rookie-laden squad trying to make the playoffs. This team is in a very different situation. You wouldn’t call the Leafs a favourite at this point to win it all. But given the balanced nature of NHL competition, they’re definitely a contender, and a contender is more likely to pay a bigger price to get something of quality.
The Leafs could use experience, particularly on defence and the wings. But it has to be experience that can keep up with the pace the team plays at.
No point adding a defenceman, for example, if he isn’t more mobile than Roman Polak.
To do that, it probably will take more than mid-round draft picks. Is it time to be willing to trade a firstround pick to get significant help at the deadline? You could certainly make that argument. Would you move a prospect such as Travis Dermott to get a 20-something defenceman with a year or two left on an affordable contract? Probably.
What’s unclear is what talent will be available. The Leafs have seven games left against Buffalo and Ottawa, two teams that look likely to dump bodies at the deadline, which could very well be helpful in the standings. But the Sabres and Sens are unlikely to send help to Toronto, although Ottawa did do the Dion Phaneuf transaction with the Leafs two seasons ago.
What is clear is that the second half could be an exciting one for Toronto hockey fans, presuming relatively good health by the Leafs. When you combine a favourable schedule with the likelihood that roster enhancements in some form are on the way, this team could be in a very good position to challenge in the east come April. Damien Cox’s column appears Tuesday and Saturday.