2018 feels ripe for a big, unexpected geopolitical crisis, Eurasia Group says

This year could see a geopolitical crisis on the scale of the financial crash a decade ago, Eurasia Group warned in its annual outlook.

The New York-based political risk consultancy said that “if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018.”

The biggest uncertainty surrounds China’s move to fill a vacuum as U.S. influence continues to decline, stoking tensions between the two powers, it said. That’s likely to affect economics as well.

Here’s are some of Eurasia’s biggest worries in 2018:

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s successful consolidation of authority is helping him to fill the gap created by U.S. President Donald Trump’s move away from Washington-led multilateralism. In areas such as trade and investment, technology and values, China is setting international standards with less resistance than ever before.

There are too many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious international conflict. Cyberattacks, North Korea, Syria, Russia and terrorism are some of the risks that could trigger a mistake that leads to confrontation.

As rapid technological devel- opments reshape the economic and political order, the process will be messy. Fault lines include a struggle for market dominance, fragmentation and a race for new technologies.

Relations between the U.S. and Iran in 2018 will be a source of broad geopolitical and market risk. If the nuclear deal doesn’t survive the year, the Middle East could be pushed into a real crisis.

Protectionism will make further inroads led by populism, state capitalism and heightened geopolitical tensions. Governments are also intervening in the digital economy and innovation-intensive industries to preserve intellectual property and related technologies.