DOES BRITAIN REGREXIT?
Why momentum is building for a second referendum on leaving the EU.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York City mayor, once told Britons their decision to pull out of the European Union was the “single stupidest thing any country has ever done” — apart from the election by Americans of Donald Trump as president.
Bloomberg was perfectly right, of course, but he may have spoken too soon.
Incredibly, there are increasing signs in the United Kingdom that the disastrous Brexit vote may be heading for a second referendum before the process of withdrawal is formally complete.
In the June 2016 referendum, U.K. voters backed leaving the EU by a narrow margin — 51.9 per cent to 48.1 per cent. But since then, public opinion has gradually shifted.
The latest polls show that the “Remain” side favouring EU membership is now ahead by a margin of six to 10 points, the largest lead since the referendum. A majority also favours a second referendum.
What may be most significant is where that boost is coming from. The support among those who want to exit the EU appears to be unchanged, but the number of previously “undecided” is now overwhelmingly in favour of remaining. This is particularly apparent among young people, who largely failed to vote in 2016 and have shown signs of regretting that.
If a second referendum is to happen, the clock is ticking.
The two-year exit process is in motion with the U.K.’s final departure from the EU planned for March of 2018.
But an opportunity to schedule another referendum is increasingly possible. It could be triggered if Brexit negotiations break down. Or, more likely, it could happen this autumn when the British Parliament and the EU have to agree on the terms of the divorce. A referendum could be called on whether to accept the terms.
Until recently, even the mention of a Brexit reversal was regarded as fanciful by Britain’s political and media class. But the final Brexit vote in 2016 was a surprise — nearly as much as Trump’s presidential victory a few months later. And the momentum has changed direction.
Much of that is due to growing economic problems in Britain, as well as indications that Europe intends to demand a harsh settlement from the U.K. for exiting the EU.
The issue exploded last week when Nigel Farage, one of the leading anti-EU campaigners, dramatically said that Britain might need a second referendum to settle the issue once and for all. He said his “Leave” side would win a second vote, but his controversial comments — which he took back on Wednesday — triggered widespread debate.
In a similar vein, Foreign Minister Boris Johnson — another leading antiEU campaigner — reportedly told friends that he fears a Brexit deal will leave the country subordinate to the European Union: “I’d rather us stay in than leave like that,” he was quoted as saying.
This new debate took European leaders by surprise, but they recovered quickly. Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said he hoped Britain would rethink its position: “We here on the continent haven’t had a change of heart. Our hearts are still open to you.”
Britain’s journey since the shocking Brexit vote has been rocky. That can be seen in the diminished figure of Prime Minister Theresa May as she barely hangs on to power, as well as in the incredibly shrinking presence of the once influential United Kingdom in international affairs. That was apparent at a summit on Thursday in London between Emmanuel Macron, France’s powerful and popular president, and May. There was no doubt which of the two wielded the most clout. As Macron knows, “Long live Little England” is hardly a siren call for the 21st century.
Just before the summit, Macron added his voice to other European leaders urging Britain to step back from Brexit: “If tomorrow, or the day after, the United Kingdom decided to change its mind, it’s clear that we would look at this with kindness.”
But Macron made no mention of the announcement by May the day before his visit. The U.K. government has appointed a “minister for loneliness” to deal with what the prime minister called “the sad reality of modern life.”
There are now less than 15 months for Britain to change an important part of that reality. Tony Burman is former head of Al Jazeera English and CBC News. Reach him @TonyBurman or at tony.burman@gmail.com.