This post-season has been a case for defences
OK, let’s go crazy. Not, They Accidentally Sent Out An Emergency Warning To Hawaii About An Incoming Ballistic Missile crazy, which is bad, bad times. We used to get false warnings of an impending global apocalypse — like the one in 1980, or the Stanislav Petrov incident in 1983, or the time Richard Nixon got drunk and wanted to bomb North Korea — but nobody had mobile phones back then, and the emergency broadcast system was a simpler thing. Oh, Nixon. You crazy, smart, drunken racist scoundrel. You almost seem quaint.
But in the NFL, we are into the crazy juice, the pigskin peyote. We are hopped up on goofballs. The Minnesota Miracle was one of the purest eruptions of sporting joy you will ever see, and all it cost was the only great non-Tom Brady quarterback left in the playoffs, probably, along with the sporting souls of every Saints fan and also rookie safety Marcus Williams, who missed the tackle that let it all happen. It can take everything in sports sometimes, and if you are short one piece it all falls apart.
And then there was Jacksonville, the crap-talkingest group of badasses wearing uniforms that evoke a 1990s website more than anything else that there ever was. The Jaguars stomped Pittsburgh and talked smack about it, crowned by cornerback Jalen Ramsey telling a crowd in Jacksonville, “We’re going to the Super Bowl, and we’re going to win that b----.” He was promising to beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Jacksonville is the fart joke of the NFL: a team whose own website’s articles were classified as satire by Google for many years. Bless those guys.
And that’s the dynamic now: Three tortured fanbases — the missed opportunity futility of Minnesota and Philadelphia, and the bullied loser kid vibe in Jacksonville — against the arrogance of the eternal empire in New England. The Jaguars went 3-13 last year. Philadelphia went 7-9. Minnesota went a miserable 8-8. Weird year.
So, how is this happening? Injuries, for one. So many injuries. So many bad quarterbacks. And the rising salary cap allowed teams to spend on big-time players, especially on defence.
The five best defences this year in terms of total yardage allowed were Minnesota, Jacksonville, Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. (New England was 29th.)
The top five passing defences in yards allowed per attempt were Minnesota, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Cincinnati. (New England was 25th.)
The five lowest passer ratings allowed were Jacksonville, Baltimore, Minnesota, the Chargers and the Rams. (Philadelphia was ninth, New England 17th.)
The two top teams in rushing yards allowed per game were Philadelphia and Minnesota. (New England was 20th, Jacksonville 21st.) In rushing yards per attempt: Minnesota was fifth, Philadelphia sixth, Jacksonville 26th, New England 31st.
So the five best defences this year in terms of DVOA, or Defence-Adjusted Yards Over Replacement — an advanced stat from Football Outsiders — were Jacksonville, Minnesota, Baltimore, Arizona and Philadelphia. (New England was 31st.) Which seems about right, right? You get to the final four with Bortles, Keenum and Foles — which coincidentally is also the name of a threeman detective show on TNT — and you’d better have something else going for you.
Except the top five defences by scoring — pure points allowed — were Minnesota, Jacksonville, the Chargers, Philadelphia, and . . . New England.
What the . . . are they cheating again? Are they hacking into playbooks? Are there bribes involved?
Basically, it’s the Seattle Super Bowl writ large. The five best red zone touchdown percentages allowed this season were the Chargers, Minnesota, Atlanta, Jacksonville and . . . New England. (Philadelphia was 16th. Pittsburgh was 31st. Cleveland was last. Some things makes sense.) The top five teams in points per play allowed were Minnesota, the Chargers, Jacksonville, New England and Baltimore. (Philadelphia was sixth.)
So their defence bends, but does not break. Great. So how will anybody overcome New England? One, get to Brady with four rushers, the way the Giants used to. And two, score in the red zone.
Now, maybe Brady’s throwing hand really is hurt after it got dinged — allegedly! — at practice this week. He wore a glove and some thumb support Thursday, and did not actually practise. Where is your Jimmy Garoppolo god now, Belichick?
But like rich people influencing policy at the expense of the poor, or the continual deterioration of human interaction and soul at the expense of electronic dopamine feedback loops, the Patriots are still the depressing favourites.
Still, that Minnesota game. Those defences. If the Vikings, or the Eagles, or the freaking backcountry Jaguars win the Super Bowl, it could be like that. Imagine the freshness of it, the improbability, the joy. Let’s do it. Come on.
Last week this space went 1-3. As always, all lines could change.